Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Price action and outlook for soybeans.
After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says in response to the China deal the soybean market pushed into new highs for the move with January finally closing above the $11 mark.
Alan Bruger says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks with this deal.
Allison Thompson says soybeans paused on Wednesday with January down 3/4 cent as the market faded news of China purchases as it was already priced into the market.
Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says soybeans have priced in the optimism about a China trade deal and had muted reaction to news of the first China soybean purchases of the 2025-26 marketing year.
Most of the slowdown was due to a deceleration in production capacity in renewable diesel and other biofuels.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments thinks the China deal is nearly priced into the soybean market and so it will need confirmation of what “significant purchases” means before moving higher.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says soybeans made new highs for the move and January futures are closing in on $11, while March made fresh highs for the year.
The hearing will focus on concerns that consolidation in the U.S. seed and fertilizer industries contributes to higher input costs for farmers.
Grain markets staged a rally on Monday and Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans led the charge on news over the weekend that the U.S. and China had reached a framework agreement that included “substantial purchases” of U.S. soybeans.
Live cattle are sharply lower with limit down moves in feeders under expanded limits on Monday morning. Brad Kooima says now the focus is on the possibility of the U.S. dropping the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he hasn’t missed the government data including the October WASDE.
Soybeans have been trading in a sideways range for more than a year and a China deal is really the only thing that could get soybeans to break out of the topside of that range.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and feeder quickly pushed to limit down status with fear of the U.S. opening the border to Mexican feeder imports.
Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says soybeans are hitting new highs for the move with the tailwind of comments from President Trump about getting a trade deal with China next week in South Korea.
Grains ended mostly higher on renewed technical buying, while cattle closed with limit down moves in feeder cattle in reaction to President Trump’s social media comments about beef.
The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing supplemental SRE reallocation volumes to the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard Volumes.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the recent rally corn and soybeans ran into chart resistance. However, outside markets had a negative impact with the selloff in precious metals and the rally in the dollar.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans are seeing some profit taking after a 35 cents rally off of last week’s lows but also some farmer pricing. The higher dollar is weighing on corn and wheat.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says soybeans ended higher on Monday and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week. Cattle tried to recover after Friday’s meltdown and after President Trump comments about the U.S. buying Argentina beef to lower prices for consumers.
Speaking with Fox News, Rollins noted USDA’s readiness to issue the promised aid.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts.
The price action in corn was impressive to Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in part because it came during the gut slot of harvest when farmers are gathering a predicted record crop.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying this week after bouncing off key support on the charts. The key is can the markets build on it next week?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.
Clean Fuels Alliance America has sent a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and a copy to USDA Secretary Booke Rollins, saying EPA’s pending Supplemental Notice on Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 may have a major negative impact on the U.S. agricultural economy.
Kevin Duling of KD Investors says soybeans saw some short covering and technical buying but got a fundamental push from rising Brazilian basis levels.
Sam Swanson with The Money Farm says soybeans are seeing short covering as U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the possibility of extending a pause of import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months exists if China halts its plan for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements.