Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn rallied on Friday in reaction to USDA’s 2.1 bu. per acre yield cut to 186.7 bu. cut he thinks there are bigger cuts yet to come.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher again on Friday morning with the third day of recovery after Tuesday’s melt down. They need to close above Thursday’s highs to have a shot at retesting the record highs.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says while he thinks the corn and soybean crops are getting smaller he’s not sure if it will be reflected in the September WASDE.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says last year USDA raised yield .5 bu. in the September report and left soybean yield unchanged, despite dry conditions to finish the crop.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says grains saw technical selling pressure ahead of the WASDE. The agency doesn’t normally make huge changes in the September report and the market may be more worried about demand than supply.
Oil prices have held fairly steady recently, thanks to a generally level supply and demand balance.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans drifted early Wednesday ahead of the September WASDE as the market tries to determine how much USDA will lower yield.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says grain markets saw profit taking after the higher closes on Monday. And the ugly day in the cattle market was tied to technical selling.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says grains were quietly mixed early Tuesday positioning ahead of the September WASDE. She expects USDA to modestly cut corn and soybean yields but they could also cut demand.
USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast projects net farm income will rise sharply from 2024.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says corn and soybeans saw a technical bounce and buying after holding chart support.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the uptrend line on the cattle charts is also starting to be violated but that isn’t the only thing he’s watching for a signal of a bigger correction.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn was slightly lower for the week but held support. The performance was a victory, considering the large infusion of bearish news the corn market had to absorb.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn futures ended lower on Friday on profit taking and were down nearly 2-cents for the week. However, December still held the 50-day moving average.
China has imposed preliminary duties on pork imports from the European Union, a move set to disrupt shipments from one of the world’s biggest suppliers.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn is working on its third higher weekly close, which continues to help confirm the fall low set on August 12. Soybeans are still looking for China export business but could they be buying under unknown destinations?
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn shook off early losses after bouncing off support on the charts.
U.S. corn growers and ethanol producers once enjoyed a level playing field with Brazil.
Brady Huck with Advance Trading says corn and soybeans continue to see profit taking and consolidation after the recent run off the August lows. Currently both markets are testing key support that needs to hold.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says corn saw some profit taking after hitting chart resistance as the December contract neared $4.25, which coincided with the 38% retracement level.
Global bonds yields are on the rise (lower prices).
Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist with Allendale, Inc. says corn was lower Wednesday, seeing some profit taking after getting overbought but the rest of the grain and livestock complex were also lower.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, says soybeans saw risk off selling as China aligned itself with Russia and India, which signals no deal between the U.S. and China any time soon.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are back into new contract and all-time highs after showing considerable resilience last week and despite a selloff in the equities. Grains sell off on tariff concerns.
Gulke says next week’s action in corn futures is important because a continued rally could provide the first buy signal in the corn market in over six months.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says grains rallied with corn leading the charge on end of month short covering and ahead of a long holiday weekend.
However, the stagnation comes as the disparity between fertilizer prices and potential profits widens.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures saw end of month profit taking on Thursday and some follow through selling to start Friday.
Brazil’s environmental authorities seized around 7,000 illegal head of cattle in the Amazon and issued fines to several ranchers and slaughterhouses.