Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says soybeans are seeing follow through buying on Wednesday with the de-escalation of the China trade war.
The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company in Chicago, says corn was pressured by the fast planting pace of 12% nationally and a slightly more open forecast for the next week or so.
Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial, says corn and wheat are under pressure from fast corn planting pace and rains in the forecast for hard red winter wheat country. Soybeans bounced off support, but need to take out technical resistance to keep the momentum going.
Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed significant progress in talks for an early trade deal between the two countries.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says grain and cattle markets saw selling Monday in tandem with the collapse in outside markets.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains lose early strength running into chart resistance. While cattle also started higher with the sharply higher cash trade Thursday but faded.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures closed strong on Thursday and for the week, pushed by cash. While new crop corn and soybeans gained as the market transitions from focusing on demand, to focusing on supply.
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) bluntly stated, “There will be no farm bill if SNAP is gutted.”
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the grains markets started the day session higher with weekly exports strong except for old crop wheat. However, the market turned mixed with positioning ahead of a three day holiday and watching weather.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says several factors combined to cause the commodity wide buying on Wednesday.
Biofuels producer LanzaJet voiced concerns that potential Trump administration tariffs on Brazilian ethanol could significantly increase the cost of domestically produced sustainable avian fuel (SAF).
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the profit taking in the grain markets seems to be fading as the focus shifts to weather and China trade optimism.
Farmdoc daily reports that Brazil’s rapid expansion of corn-based ethanol production is transforming the country’s domestic corn market, sharply boosting internal consumption and potentially curbing future exports.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says grain markets continue to see profit taking after the recent relief rally pushed old crop corn, soybeans and wheat up into technical resistance on the charts.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says selling continues in much of the grain complex early Tuesday on profit taking as corn, soybeans and wheat contracts have all run into technical resistance.
The disaster aid framework is expected to be more farmer friendly versus the bewildering approach taken by the Biden administration.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says grains see a healthy correction on profit taking after hitting resistance. Cattle continue to recover with the S&P but for how long?
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the April WASDE confirmed the tighter balance sheets he had been expecting for several reports but that’s just the start of the bullish news.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says the way the markets shook off the escalating trade war with China was impressive but it will take several factors converging to keep the momentum going.
Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are calling on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to broaden USDA’s response to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says the ag markets have handled the escalation of the trade war with China remarkably well this week.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says corn and soybeans ended higher with lower ending stocks in the WASDE as corn fell below the 1.5 billion bu. mark.
Keystone Pipeline’s owner, South Bow Corp., has declared force majeure on scheduled crude oil shipments following a spill in North Dakota.
Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are trading lower Thursday morning with the retreat in the stock market. Grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE, but he doesn’t expect any market moving news from the report.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains are shaking off the news of an escalation of the trade war with China as they announced overnight they would be placing an additional 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, including ag.