Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
A breakdown of new, returning and departing members
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says corn saw some fund buying on tight supplies and with help from concerns about Argentina weather. However, soybeans couldn’t follow, pulled down by meal.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and soybeans are watching South American weather with hot dry conditions mainly in Argentina and Southern Brazil but some rain in the weekend forecast.
The Department of Energy and other federal agencies released a report on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says corn and soybeans saw profit taking after stretching to new highs for the move as the markets were overbought.
Craig Turner, with StoneX, says corn and soybeans saw some early pressure on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and some farmer selling was also noted, both from U.S. and South American producers.
Cutler believes the upcoming challenge lies in overcoming entrenched trade disparities, including subsidies, state-owned enterprises and cross-border data flows.
The latest USDA American Farms and Ranches at a Glance report offers insights to how row crop growers are making a go of it financially in 2025.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says corn and soybeans continued to see gains from strong technical closes on Friday and extending the report rally.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle futures are consolidating which is healthy. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans make new highs for the move still digesting USDA’s bullish report data and the shocking cuts in yield, production and ending stocks.
Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net, says South America is setting up for a record crop. “I think at this point Brazil will have a huge crop, 172 to 175 MMT, that’ll more than offset at what we lost here in the U.S.”
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as of Friday’s report, USDA has dropped corn ending stocks nearly 1 billion bushels from their initial estimate during the February 2024 Ag Outlook Forum when the agency projected carryout at 2.532 billion bushels based on trend-line yield.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration aims for a “dollar-for-dollar” response.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says it will be tough for corn to run to $5 because report just confirmed what the market already knew.
USDA lowered corn yield a whopping 3.8 bu. and soybeans 1 bu. which led to lower production and ending stocks.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are digesting another week of record cash trade at $320 dressed, up $5 and the South traded some $200 live, up $4.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Grains are firmer ahead of USDA reports and 45Z guidance.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn has rallied nearly $1 and soybeans around 50 cents off the lows. So production and ending stocks will need to come in well under trade estimates in the USDA reports for prices to push higher.
Farmers and trade anticipate final numbers from the crop production summary on Friday. The latest information from WASDE, winter wheat seedings and quarterly stocks will be available tomorrow.
Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to continue slowing this year, but also saw a rising risk that price pressures may remain sticky.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from some rain added to the 11-15 day weather forecast in Argentina and Southern Brazil and USDA report positioning. Cattle saw profit taking and maybe some reaction to the border opening to Mexican feeder cattle imports soon.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grain markets are seeing early pressure with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index back near recent highs, but also watching South American weather and ahead of USDA reports on Friday.
Grassley criticized EPA for relying heavily on foreign records to verify compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), calling the approach inadequate.
The uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs is already exerting significant pressure on the global economy, according to a Bloomberg Economics model.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans came back from early profit taking pressure to end steady as trader position ahead of Friday’s USDA reports and watch South American weather.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn and soybeans are seeing profit taking and farmer selling after hitting chart resistance on Monday at previous highs and retreating.
The U.S. Treasury Department’s new regulations for the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V) broaden eligibility for hydrogen producers utilizing biomethane or renewable natural gas (RNG).
Southern California’s prolonged dry spell — nearly eight months with negligible rain — is straining agriculture and raising concerns about wildfire risks.
Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing says corn, soybeans and soybean meal saw fund buying and weather premium being added early in the session with hot and dry weather forecasts for 15 days out in Argentina and Southern Brazil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures recovered nicely from Friday’s selloff with some contracts making new highs for the move, pricing in record cash cattle trade. Grain markets are seeing fund buying with soybeans and meal leading on dry weather forecasts for Argentina.
A new economic study paints a troubling picture of the potential results a renewed U.S./China trade war could have on farmers and the ag sector.