Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
This delay in the 45Z program details is causing significant concern among producers and politicians alike.
International grain trading firms operating in Brazil will vote next week on changes that could weaken an agreement to not buy soybeans from deforested areas of the Amazon rainforest.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says the agricultural markets saw risk off technical selling. The sentiment of the grain market in particular is bearish right now due to uncertainty tied to trade and overall policy in the new administration.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says soybeans are consolidating with products, despite a 30,000 MT sale of bean oil to South Korea.
Boozman emphasized the need for Congress to act swiftly, providing farmers with the predictability needed to secure financial stability.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn failed mid-session with conflicting information about guidance being delayed for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits, but it also hit chart resistance.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle recover Tuesday after a KS plant closure headline hurt the market. Grains see a technical bounce with a lower dollar.
U.S. processors crushed 215.8 million bu. of soybeans in October, smashing the previous record for any month.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says more tariff talk over the weekend from President-elect Trump, this time on the BRICS nations, had fund or managed money traders nervous again and pushed the dollar higher.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.
A recap of this week’s price action and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.
The latest data from the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to show very little reason to expect a full blown La Niña in the next few months.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.
Trump’s ability to bypass Congress through executive orders provides him with a powerful tool to reshape SNAP and other welfare programs.
Mexico is making a strategic push to boost its role in global trade.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says soybeans built on Friday’s bullish reversal with talk China is looking for more U.S. soybeans. Cattle had a volatile session with a bearish Cattle on Feed Report and sorting through import restrictions on Mexican cattle due to New World Screwworm.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures shook off the bearish Cattle on Feed Report numbers with an announcement of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. Soybeans built on the key reversal Friday on talk of China buying U.S. soybeans.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says farmers need to use the strong basis levels, especially on corn, to make some cash sales. However, there are options they can use to take advantage of a rally later on.
Key changes in estate and gift tax exemptions and valuation rules for 2025 offer expanded benefits, though some are temporary:
The question becomes whether threats of tariffs include barring used cooking oil imports outright or merely tariffing the product, especially from China.
The Department of Energy (DOE) released its SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework, outlining strategies to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.
There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target, which means there’s potential for more market volatility in the next six weeks. On the demand side, questions remain as well.
Don Roose U.S. Commodities says grains were under pressure on technical selling, a lack of bullish news and the higher dollar. March soybeans made new contract lows with the lower soybean oil, favorable weather in Brazil and tariff fears.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are being led by the feeders and the cash market which is on fire out in the country. Grains are sliding early despite solid export business.
Brazil and China signed 37 deals covering agriculture, tech cooperation, trade and investments, infrastructure, industry, energy and mining, among other areas.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and wheat held risk premium tied to the escalating conflict in the Black Sea and despite a higher dollar.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says grains are facing the headwind of returning strength in the U.S. dollar index and the lack of weather threats. Soybean oil losses are additionally pulling down soybeans.
The emphasis on domestic agriculture reflects a broader trend in Mexican policy that could challenge existing trade agreements and alter the dynamics of agricultural exports between the two countries.