Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says corn and soybeans were supported by strong demand initially but ended off highs running into chart resistance and on election jitters. After another volatile day in cattle is the market topping?
Darin Newsom, Sr. Market Analyst with Barchart says some of the early support in the grain markets Friday morning is coming from strong export demand.
Joe Santos, Director of the Ness School of Management and Economics at SDSU, says, “Interest rates if they remain relatively high compared to history I think that will continue to tighten economic performance in general including agricultural performance.”
Agriculture powerhouse Brazil has an abundance of cheap crops to make biofuels, providing the nation a leg up on competitors including the United States.
SovEcon further lowered its 2024-25 grain export estimates, citing new restrictions prohibiting sales of Russian grain by foreign third parties to sovereign buyers at tenders.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw a nice short covering bounce on the heels of a rally in soybean oil and more flash export sales to China and unknown.
Canadian renewable fuels producers are facing lower returns on new facilities due to a slump in British Columbia’s low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit market, a trend expected to persist amid a flood of imports from the United States.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says wheat led gains putting in risk premium on the low crop rating which triggers some short covering and corn followed.
Grain futures are seeing corrective buying, bouncing off technical support says Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures.
The lack of guidance for a new clean-fuel tax credit is causing biofuels producers to put off some purchases of soyoil for early next year.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX says grains saw technical and risk off selling from sharply lower crude oil. However, improved rains in South America were also a factor.
Cattle are trading two-sided early as Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market is digesting the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Grains are seeing pressure from a number of bearish factors.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says price performance might have been a little disappointing but that’s because of USDA’s lofty ending stocks estimates at nearly 2 billion bushels for corn and 550 million bushels for soybeans.
USDA forecasts all food costs this year will rise 2.3%.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains saw profit taking on Friday after hitting chart resistance and a pick up in farmer selling.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains ease on profit taking and farmer selling. Cattle make more new highs for the move on hedge lifting and higher cash trade which was generally up $2 yesterday then fade.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a new agriculture plan aimed at reviving the country’s food production and distribution systems to resemble those of the 1980s.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says corn was pushed Thursday by strong demand with 15.5 million bushels of flash sales and weekly exports of 142 million bushels, the highest in 3 1/2 years.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and soybeans are getting pushed by strong weekly exports and more flash sales.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says while soybean export demand is improving if South America continues to receive rain prices could be too high.
The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) is responsible for reviewing current nutrition science and providing recommendations for the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which are updated every five years.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says corn and soybeans showed resilience rallying into the close on strong demand. However, he thinks it may be exporters front loading their purchases. Cattle reverse in reaction to the McDonald’s E.coli story.
Alan Brugler, A and N Economics, LLC says grains are caught in a tug of war between farmer selling and strong cash basis levels due to strong demand.
From January through September, Mato Grosso imported 4.51 MMT of fertilizers, a 4.8% decline from the same period last year.
Craig Turner with StoneX says grains saw technical buying off support areas but demand is also strong.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn and soybeans bounced off chart support and are seeing fund short covering but also strong end user buyer with another 14.2 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico.
Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics, acknowledges the challenges ahead, noting that inflation has been trending lower throughout the year due to various factors.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says row crops are in a tug of war that could keep the markets sideways for a while.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were due for a slight correction and could ease their overbought status just by moving sideways. Grains are rebounding in part due to fresh flash export sales on corn and soybeans.
“The bottom line is the function of the market — when you have too much, you become the cheapest seller, not necessarily the cheapest producer,” says Jerry Gulke.