Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net says the corn stocks were friendly under expectations at 1.76 billion bushels due to better feed demand and that data is supportive for the corn market.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains and livestock futures are trading mixed as traders position and take profits end of quarter and await the USDA report numbers out at 11 am.
Russia hiked the export duty for corn almost tenfold, marking the first sign of export curbs amid lower corn crop forecasts.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
November soybeans rallied 24 3/4 cents to $10.65 3/4 and surged 53 3/4 cents on the week. We share our outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
This labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) could have far-reaching consequences if an agreement is not reached before the contract expires on Sept. 30.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures reversed with $2 higher cash in Southern feedlot areas. Grain markets ended lower as fund short covering was overrun by an increase in farmer selling.
Jerry Gulke wonders if the unintended consequences from failed biofuels policies are really unintended at all.
Winter wheat planting rates in Russia have fallen to an 11-year low, clouding the outlook for the 2025 harvest, Black Sea consultancy SovEcon said.
USDA revised its forecast for food prices in 2024, expecting a smaller increase than previously predicted.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says the market has been resilient as the funds are exiting shorts and taking profits end of quarter.
Grains started out mostly lower Wednesday but Darin Newsom with Barchart says they continue to see buying on the dips as funds are covering shorts and taking profits.
Brazil is making significant strides in the development and production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), positioning itself as a potential leader in this emerging market.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says it wasn’t the best close for the grains as the markets ran up into some chart resistance and are starting to look a little tired.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are covering shorts and there is new technical buying as well as the markets have cleared some key chart resistance.
The study suggests renewable energy development can coexist with agricultural production in many cases. However, the researchers noted these projects have local socioeconomic effects on rural communities.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of factors drove soybeans higher including South American weather and China economic news. Corn and wheat followed. Cattle futures also made new highs for the move pushed by cash.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are hitting new highs for the move after a chart breakout and pushed by stronger cash last week. Grains are all strong early with soybeans making near term highs on the convergence of several fundamentals.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans ended lower on Friday on farmer selling of both old and new crop inventory. However, both corn and wheat had lower weekly closes which could indicate a trend change.
Despite lawmaker chatter this week about various high-level meetings regarding a new farm bill, the same issues remain.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing a correction heading into the Cattle on Feed Report. Corn and soybeans are seeing hedge pressure and selling tied to extended forecasts showing rain in Brazil.
Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is pushing to finalize a full five-year farm bill rather than pursue an ad hoc emergency assistance package for farmers, despite pressure from commodity groups and some lawmakers.
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2024-25 global wheat and corn production.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from harvest and better South American weather prospects. Cattle and hogs soared on the heels of the higher stock market.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says wheat is pulling down corn with a higher dollar and rains in the SW Plains, while soybeans hold gains on strong export demand. Cattle are rallying in sympathy with the stock market.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points could be huge for agricultural markets.
That’s a major topic frustrating U.S. corn and ethanol producers, with Brazil maintaining protective tariffs while the U.S. allows tariff-free access for Brazilian ethanol.
The tariff rate on U.S. soybeans is as high as 56.5%, including goods and services tax (GST) and value added tax (VAT). This high tariff structure acts as a significant trade barrier for U.S. soybean exports to India.