Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is pushing to finalize a full five-year farm bill rather than pursue an ad hoc emergency assistance package for farmers, despite pressure from commodity groups and some lawmakers.
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2024-25 global wheat and corn production.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from harvest and better South American weather prospects. Cattle and hogs soared on the heels of the higher stock market.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says wheat is pulling down corn with a higher dollar and rains in the SW Plains, while soybeans hold gains on strong export demand. Cattle are rallying in sympathy with the stock market.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points could be huge for agricultural markets.
That’s a major topic frustrating U.S. corn and ethanol producers, with Brazil maintaining protective tariffs while the U.S. allows tariff-free access for Brazilian ethanol.
The tariff rate on U.S. soybeans is as high as 56.5%, including goods and services tax (GST) and value added tax (VAT). This high tariff structure acts as a significant trade barrier for U.S. soybean exports to India.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed was anticipated but is friendly for the ag markets.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says November soybeans are finally above the 50 day moving average for a number of reasons, including more talk of China business.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle market has just felt better the last week with cash finally bottoming and futures posting a higher weekly close.
Financial analyst says the next 48 days might be a good time to just ‘lay low and take a little off the table.’
The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire on Sept. 30.
The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the “Fuels of the Future” bill last week, which could increase soybean crushing for biodiesel production.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 158.0 million bu. of soybeans during August.
Remnants of Hurricane Francine produced significant rains across the northern Delta and Tennessee River basin, but World Weather Inc. says water levels on the lower Mississippi river will rise for only a few days before falling again.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says wheat led the grain complex lower after better rain forecasts for U.S. and Black Sea production areas, but all the grain markets ran into chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cash cattle market put in a low last week and futures were sharply higher so the market just feels better. Soybeans and corn may have put in seasonal lows but he cautions further upside may be capped by harvest pressure.
Corn and wheat ended higher for a third week, while soybeans have put in four weeks of higher closes. Alan Brugler thinks wheat might be trying to forge a low, but it might be too early to make that call on corn and soybeans.
Environmental groups challenge the EPA’s 2023 decision to deny a petition for stricter regulations, arguing that the agency is neglecting its duty to control CAFO pollution.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says early cash has been steady at $181 in the South helping to push cattle futures. Row crops are extending gains post WASDE, while wheat adds weather premium.
The report recommends moving away from the current system of subsidies based on land size to one focused on farmer income.
The House approved the Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act, aimed at increasing oversight of farmland purchases by foreign investors, particularly those from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans fell on a combination of factors including higher yield ideas in the USDA Report.
Reuters reported USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is “confident” the clean fuels tax credit will be finalized by end of the Biden administration in January.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking with better than expected ratings, reigniting fears of higher yields in the September WASDE. Corn saw spillover from lower soybeans and crude oil.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, thinks the biggest yield numbers have already been traded in the corn and soybean markets and represent the contract lows in August.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
The decline was partially due to lower total national supply (down 1% to 38.7 MMT).
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.