A weather rally in the grain market has fueled commodity prices the past two weeks, but a slight change in the forecast for the weekend sent prices lower both Thursday and Friday. The weekend forecasts look more optimistic for the northern Corn Belt, but USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey points out the central Corn Belt is still waiting on measurable rains after a historically dry June.
Rippey says the weather outlook for the weekend into early next week is a touch more optimistic in some northern corn and soybean production areas, mainly from the Dakotas to Michigan.
“The good news is that the block that has been persistent over the Midwest for a while now, really back all the way into May, has temporarily shifted just enough that it’s going to let a cold front and a storm system work its way through the Midwest starting over the weekend into next week,” says Rippey. “And so there is a little bit of promise for some rainfall. We’ve already seen some showers and thunderstorms working their way into the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. And that trend will continue through the weekend.”
Not Enough to Dramatically Change Corn Belt Drought
Next week’s forecast turns cooler for the Corn Belt, but Rippey says it still looks fairly dry. He says more rains are needed at such a crucial time of the production cycle, especially considering farmers in the Midwest typically see 1 to 1 1/3 inches of rain every week.
“We depend on that to get the corn and soybeans through, especially as they enter reproduction this time of year. We’re not seeing that,” says Rippey. “We have a lot of communities, a lot of towns and cities in the central part of the Corn Belt at risk for the driest June on record, especially in Illinois and parts of neighboring states with totals in the range of one-tenth to one-half of an inch of rain so far in June. Normal totals are three to four inches of rain.”
While this isn’t a comprehensive list, it is an example of some cities on track for the driest June on record with rainfall totals as of June 22, 2023.
| Location | Rainfall Totals as of June 22 | Current Record for June |
| Decatur, Ill. | 0.48" | 0.53" (1993) |
| Lincoln, Ill. | 0.24" | 0.42" (1936) |
| Dubuque, Iowa | 0.43" | .70" (1988) |
| Peoria, Ill. | 0.23" | 0.45" (1936) |
| Grand Rapids, Mich. | 0.21" | 0.25" (1988) |
| Minneapolis, Minn. | 0.10" | 0.22" (1988) |
The dry June comes after May also produced a disappointing precipitation picture for states like Michigan and Wisconsin. According to NOAA, Wisconsin had its fourth driest May on record this year. Pennsylvania ranked fifth. Michigan experienced the ninth driest May on record in 2023.
🔥🔥According to today's @DroughtCenter monitor & USDA 64% of #corn, 57% of #soybeans, 50% of winter #wheat & 41% of #cattle are in areas experiencing drought #AgTwitter 🌱🌾🌽🥩@SenateAgGOP pic.twitter.com/vCpK68y9Nz
— John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) June 22, 2023
Considering how far behind the moisture picture is across key areas of the Corn Belt, Rippey says a little rain over the weekend is not going to cure the problem.
“It might delay the issues a little bit longer, but we need a lot more than just a quick shot of rain over one storm system to cure what is going on in the Midwest over the last six to eight weeks,” adds Rippey.
Read More: Drought Watch: 64% of U.S. Corn Crop Now Covered by Drought
Drought continues to deepen across the Midwest. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, 64% of the corn crop and 57% of the soybean crop across the U.S. are now covered in drought. That’s a sizable jump in just a week, which is reflected in the ongoing decline in crop conditions.
It’s also having a severe impact on crop conditions. As of last Sunday, USDA-NASS said 55% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good to excellent. Lance Honig, NASS Crops Branch Chief, says there are only two years in history where condition ratings have been lower for this week: 1992, when 52% of the crop was rated good to excellent and 1988 with a 37% good to excellent rating.
Why Has 2023 Been So Tough to Forecast?
Farmers have grown leery of any forecast this year, which is understandable considering most forecasted rains over the past six weeks haven’t materialized. Why has this year been so tough to forecast rain?
“Never underestimate the strength of a block,” says Rippey. “Our computer models really love to weaken blocks over time - you see that over and over again. So that allows erroneously some of this moisture to work its way through the block. And so the cold fronts, the low pressure systems, are forecast to be a little bit stronger as they move through the Midwest. That block has not budged really since early May. And that’s the reason you keep seeing the optimism and then the dreams get crushed and here we are back to square one.”
ROLL CALL: How do crops look in your area? Post a comment or photo in Crop Comments.
Rippey says the rain forecast for over the weekend does look more promising, and that’s because of how the block is shirting.
“This one looks a little bit stronger, and we actually have seen a slight weakening of the block. It’s providing a little optimism, but really a lot of that will be confined to the northern tier of the Corn Belt Dakotas and parts of Nebraska eastward into Michigan. That’s where we expect to see some minimal relief heading into the weekend and early next week.”
Watch the full U.S. Farm Report weather forecast for the latest look at what parts of the country have the better chances of rain.
