USDA shocked the market this morning as it projected the national corn yield at 153 bu./acre. Leading up the report, Jerry Gulke, President of the Gulke Group, says the market was trading yield expectations in the 155 bu./acre range.
They’ve recognized there’s a problem out there. I think they wanted to get ahead of it a little bit for fear of being criticized,” Gulke says. “They left the acres the same, but lowered the harvested acres by 500,000. What was interesting in the corn was they didn’t lower any of the acres in those four states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota) they resurveyed.”
Interestingly, the majority of the prevent planting in those states was in the Durum and spring wheat markets. Corn carried the spring in the traditional wheat markets of the northern plains.
Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.
Spotty spring rains have slowed planting in southwest Iowa, leaving farmers slightly behind. Despite delays, strong planning, good moisture, and a favorable forecast has Pat Sheldon optimistic for the 2026 crop season.
As the Strait closure enters its tenth week, supply chain gridlock and policy hurdles suggest high input costs will persist through the 2027 planting season, according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX.
