Utterback Says Two-Year Summer Rally Won’t Repeat Itself

Don’t hold your corn and expect a basis gain to pay for storage, because it’s unlikely to happen.

History often repeats itself, which farmers have experienced with market rallies that have occurred the past two summers. That won’t happen a third year, according to Farm Journal Economist Bob Utterback. He says there are danger signs on the horizon for farmers who have 2011 corn they haven’t sold. “We’re in a supply reduction event with the weather; this will lead the market to a sharp price event, which will then lead to demand rationing by next July,” Utterback says. He worries that too many farmers will plan to hold their new crop corn until then, expecting to take advantage of a positive basis that won’t materialize. In the following video, Utterback shares his predictions for a 2012 market high that he hopes farmers will use to their advantage.

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