A Snapshot of USDA's Surprising January Report in 10 Charts

USDA's final crop production report for the 2023 year shocked the market. Not only did the U.S. grow a record corn crop, but USDA also increased its soybean yield estimate for 2023. Cotton yields, however, plummeted in 2023 with cotton production dropping to the lowest in a decade. 

With larger-than-expected yield revisions to both corn and soybeans, it leaves one burning question: Which states grew such big yields? USDA-NASS breaks down the numbers in a series of charts and maps to help show which areas saw the biggest yield and production changes. 

USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre. When you look how yields changed year-over-year, you can see the Plains and the Mid-South saw big yield improvements from the 2022 growing season. 

With a new record national yield in 2023, the trendline chart shows just how much yields have improved over time. 

With a new national record yield, USDA also shows corn production hit a record high in 2023, at 15.3 billion bushels. 

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November.

While the 2023 yield of 50.6 bu. per acre isn't a record yield, it's still higher than 2022's final yield of 49.6 bu. per acre.

USDA pegs 2023 soybean production at 4.16 billion bushels. That's lower than what growers produced in 2022. 

Drought and prolonged heat really took a toll on cotton yields across the U.S. this year. Texas saw the biggest yield drop year-over-year, followed by Florida and California. 

With a projected cotton yield of 845 pounds per acre, USDA's 2023 cotton yield estimate is a sharp drop from the 953 pounds per acre the U.S. saw in 2022. The 2023 final cotton yield figure from USDA is also higher than 2021.

With such a sharp drop in yield, as well as abandoned acres in West Texas, U.S. cotton production fell to the lowest in a decade this year.