The outbreak of the HPAI H5N1 virus in dairy has sent cattle prices on a rollercoaster ride the past two months with the market fueled by both negative and positive news this week.
On Monday, USDA announced it would collect samples of ground beef at retail stores to test for the virus. USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) said it collected the samples from “states with dairy cattle herds that had tested positive for the H5N1 influenza virus at the time of sample collection. The samples were sent to APHIS’ National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) for PCR testing.”
Even though the agency maintained its stance on the U.S. meat supply being safe, the news sent cattle markets sharply lower.
Then, on Thursday, the USDA FSIS announced the 30 ground beef samples tested all came back negative for the virus. That news pushed cattle prices sharply higher.
“Thank goodness,” says Don Close, Chief Research & Analytics Officer, Terrain Ag. “There’s just a combination of factors we’re dealing with in the cattle market. The tight supplies, where we’re at seasonally with that April/June rollover and the basis switch there, and then we add the H5N1 outbreak in dairy on top of it, volatility is going to continue to be a mega factor in the market.”
According to AgWeb, USDA is still conducting additional beef safety studies. According to the information posted online, these include:
1. Beef muscle sampling of cull dairy cows condemned at select FSIS-inspected slaughter facilities: FSIS is currently collecting muscle samples at FSIS-inspected slaughter facilities of cull dairy cattle that have been condemned for systemic pathologies. The samples will be analyzed by APHIS using PCR to determine presence of viral particles. The results are forthcoming and will be posted as soon as they become available.
2. Ground beef cooking study: ARS will be conducting a beef cooking study and will be using a virus surrogate in ground beef and cooking it at different temperatures to determine log-reduction of the virus. The results will be posted as soon as they become available.
As the story continues to unfold, Close says the cattle markets could have more HPAI news to digest.
“Obviously with the market reaction Thursday, the big one was with the ground beef testing that has been done. And we’ve got an all clear sign there,” says Close. “We’re still waiting on the results of the testing of the muscle cuts from the dairy cows and the cow plants. If we get a green light there, it’s going to take a huge level of stress out of this market.”
Close says when you consider where we are in the whole cattle cycle, even when the market gets past the H5N1 in livestock situation, he thinks market volatility will be a major factor for cattle producers.
“Certainly, there’s further summer price risk,” Close adds.
