The road to the 2026 midterms runs directly through the dairy aisle. At the International Dairy Foods Association Dairy Forum in Palm Springs, Calif., Morning Consult’s lead U.S. politics analyst, Eli Yokley, delivered a high stakes briefing on the cultural forces currently driving the American voter. From the surprising bipartisan popularity of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement to a softening public stance on agricultural labor, Yokley’s data outlines how the dairy industry can leverage its position at the intersection of nutrition and necessity to navigate an increasingly complex political landscape.
The “MAHA” Momentum and the Milk Moment
Yokley began with a surprising revelation: While voters historically distrust the Republican party on general healthcare policy, the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda is a notable exception.
“Voters just don’t trust Republicans on healthcare in the traditional sense,” Yokley notes. “But the MAHA agenda, specifically as it relates to food, is remarkably popular. It’s working on bipartisan territory.”
According to Morning Consult data, the favorability of the MAHA agenda remained steady throughout 2025. Voters associate the movement with improving food access and reducing harmful additives rather than vaccine skepticism. This “big moment for milk” is rooted in a return to natural, whole foods. Interestingly, Yokley points out a significant gender divide. Men across the political spectrum view whole milk as “generally good for you,” women, who still perform the majority of grocery shopping, are slightly more skeptical. However, a quarter of all grocery shoppers expressed a willingness to pay more for “natural” or “whole” products, a trend driven by high-earning suburban parents who will be the ultimate deciders of the 2026 midterms.
The Inflation Disconnect: Groceries as a Political Weapon
The most significant headwind for the current administration is the economy, specifically the “grocery store” voter. Yokley argues the administration’s focus on tariffs is increasingly out of sync with voter concerns.
“Voters perceive big price increases in groceries more than any other category,” Yokley says. “Groceries are the biggest driver of voter concern this year. It activates people across all income levels.”
For the dairy industry, there is a silver lining: Dairy products are still perceived as relatively affordable compared to bread, fruits and vegetables. And while, prices of fruits and vegetables have actually remained remarkably stable, dairy’s perceived “affordability halo” gives the industry a level of credibility when engaging with policymakers. Voters are far more likely to blame trade policies and immigration enforcement for rising food costs than they are to blame the farmers themselves.
The Immigration Leverage Point
One of the most delicate issues for the dairy industry is immigration, and Yokley’s data suggests a surprising shift in public sentiment. While the political rhetoric around border security remains fiery, the American public’s view on agricultural labor is softening.
“There is an openness among the American people to the idea that these kinds of workers are important to the economy, especially in this inflationary environment,” Yokley explains.
The share of voters who believe there is “about the right number” of seasonal or lower-skilled workers has increased, while the share of those who believe there are “too many” has stalled. This creates a strategic leverage point for the dairy industry to advocate for reform, framing it as a solution to food inflation rather than a purely political issue.
The CEO Conundrum: Public Silence Versus Private Action
Yokley also addressed the role of business leaders in this volatile climate, describing it as a pickle. Morning Consult data shows only a third of voters want to see CEOs speaking out publicly on issues such as trade or immigration. In fact, public attacks on the administration can be more harmful among a leader’s own base than helpful among the general public.
The solution? Private action and the power of trade associations.
“Voters are much more open to private action and lobbying,” Yokley says. “They get that this happens. It underlines the importance of trade associations like IDFA to provide the political cover that individual CEOs might not want to risk.”
Forecasting 2026 and Beyond
Looking ahead to the midterms, Yokley described a “split” reality. The Senate map currently favors Republicans, with high-profile races in Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and Maine (Susan Collins) serving as key bellwethers. The House, however, remains a toss-up, with Democrats needing only a three-to-four-point advantage on the generic ballot to reclaim control.
Finally, Yokley cast an eye toward 2028, noting that California Governor Gavin Newsom is a figure to watch. Newsom’s “fiery rhetoric” and “Trump-style” engagement are activating young voters in a way that feels authentic to the Democratic base.
The Bottom Line for Dairy
Yokley’s concluding message was one of optimism for the industry. In a deeply divided country, milk remains a “wholesome, accessible staple” that doesn’t trigger as much discord as other issues.
“The American people don’t hate milk,” Yokley concludes. “The industry is positioned at the intersection of nutrition and affordability — the two things voters care about most.”
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