Easter egg supplies could be at risk due to the expanding outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Analysts with CoBank are saying outbreaks and depopulation within the U.S. layer flock are adding stress to egg supply chains, many of which haven’t fully recovered from the disruptions caused by COVID.
While egg production has stabilized in recent months, it is still well below pre-pandemic levels and egg availability could be limited leading into Easter, according to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
“U.S. egg producers have been hard-pressed to align supplies with market demand over the last two years,” reports Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank. “The U.S. layer flock typically expands ahead of the surge in demand for Easter and contracts during the summer months. But recent losses due to HPAI have combined with high feed costs and other challenges that are severely limiting flock size management.”
Watch this report from AgDay:
The U.S. table egg layer flock itself is shrinking, from a record of more than 340 million head in April 2019 to about 322 million head as the ongoing cage-free transition has complicated operations. The decline in supply stems from extreme shifts in consumer behavior during 2020.
The lack of packaging equipment and supplies needed for grocery sales led to empty store shelves, sky-high retail prices, and ultimately, lower egg consumption. Compounding the pandemic challenges, producers also faced increased input costs of grain, energy and transportation.
The latest blow to U.S. egg supplies is the worst outbreak of HPAI in years. At least 11 million layers have been lost in recent weeks, CoBank reports. With USDA reporting new cases almost daily and depopulation of operations ranging from in the tens of thousands to more than 5.3 million birds,1 estimating the total expected losses is challenging.
While egg production has stabilized in recent months, it is still well below pre-Covid levels. USDA’s recent weekly shell egg demand indicator shows about five days of inventory are currently on hand. This suggests a tight, but not alarmingly tight supply, CoBank reports. However, it does not appear that supplies will be able to accommodate the reduction in layers as a result of HPAI outbreaks, especially at a regional level.
Wholesale prices for cartoned eggs usually range about $0.75 per dozen to $1.50 per dozen. The last time the egg market took flight was during consumer runs on product in the early stages of COVID-19. In March 2020, wholesale values were just over $1 per dozen, and went over $3.00 per dozen in just two weeks.
The bottom line: Expect to pay more for eggs this Easter.
