TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 9-10, 2017
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I’M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE’S WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. USDA SHOCKED THE MARKET IN AUGUST WITH MONSTOROUS PRODUCTION NUMBERS, SO WILL THE BULLS OR BEARS WIN OUT NEXT WEEK?
HURRICANE IRMA
ON THE HEALS OF HURRICANE HARVEY, A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE BARRELING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST THIS WEEK, WITH PRODUCE COMPANIES AND PORTS BRACING FOR THE WORST. IN PREPERATION, THE GOVERNOR DECLARING A STATE OF EMERGENCY, WITH PRODUCE COMPANIES HALTING SHIPMENTS IN ORDER TO GIVE EMPLOYEES TIME TO PREPARE. AND WITH ORANGE HARVEST JUST AROUND THE CORNER, FLORIDA CITRUS GROWERS ALREADY FIGHTING TO SAVE A RAPIDLY DECLINING INDUSTRY, ONLY TO HAVE HARVEST READY FRUIT POSSIBLY RIPPED AWAY. THOSE GROWERS ALREADY DEALING WITH A CROP CUT BY MORE TWO-THIRDS DUE TO CITRUS GREENING. UNHARVESTED, VULNERABLE CROP STILL SITTING IN THE FIELD. ACCORDING TO USDA, COTTON HARVEST ISN’T ROLLING YET. BUT GROWERS SITTING ON A BUMPER CROP, WITH 100 PERCENT OF GEORGIA’S COTTON RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. IN SOUTH CAROLINA, 95 PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
CONDITIONS POST HARVEY
AND WE’VE SEEN THE DEVASTATION FROM HURRICANE HARVEY. THE LOUISIANA “NASS” REPORT SHOWS THE STATE’S COTTON CROP LOST 14 POINTS IN QUALITY. NOW 49-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. . IT’S UNFORTUNATE TIMING AS NEARLY THREE- QUARTERS OF THE COTTON CROP HAD OPEN BOLLS. . AND THE STATE’S SOYBEAN CROP ALSO LOST 14 POINTS. 56-PERCENT IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ABOUT HALF OF THE CROP WAS NEARLY READY FOR HARVEST,
WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST CINDI CLAWSON JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... CINDI, SO MANY UNKNOWNS WITH HURRICANE IRMA, BUT HARVEST IS RAMPING UP FOR MANY OF OUR VIEWERS. SO, HOW IS RAIN PANNING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK? WELL TYNE OVERALL NOT TOO BAD AND MUCH OF THE CORN. BUT LET’S START OFF WITH THE DROUGHT MONITOR SO WE’RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR A LOT OF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL SOME DRY AREAS AS YOU GET INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AS WELL ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF IOWA. WE’RE STARTING TO SEE SOME EXTREME DROUGHT THERE. BUT TAKE A LOOK OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS AND YOU REALLY SEE THAT IT’S BEEN KIND OF EXPANDING INTO THE NORTH EAST OR NORTH WESTERN UNITED STATES SO THINGS REALLY HAVE BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE THERE AND IT CONTINUES TO BE THAT WAY. AND AS WE AGAIN LOOK AT THE NEXT OR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS YOU REALLY SEE THAT DRYNESS KIND OF SHIFTING OUT INTO MONTANA INTO IDAHO AS WELL BUT STILL REMAINING IN PARTS OF THE CORN BELT. ALL RIGHT. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF COURSE WE’RE GOING TO HAVE HURRICANE IRMA. WE’RE GOING TO FIGURE OUT AND SEE HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE A LOT OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. OTHERWISE WE DO HAVE A FRONT THAT’S DRAPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN ACTIVITY TO FOLKS THERE AND A LITTLE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF COLORADO. OTHERWISE WE’LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE NATION’S MIDSECTION KIND OF WARM THOUGH AS YOU GET INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY WE’LL SEE ANOTHER FRONT COMING INTO PARTS OF THAT WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST LOOK FOR SOME SHOWERS MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. OF COURSE WE’LL SEE THE. HOPEFULLY REMNANTS OF IRMA BY THEN AND THEN WE WILL BE SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY WE’LL BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT HARVEST WEATHER FOR FOLKS IN THE CORN BELT A LITTLE BIT ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH BUT A LOT OF SUNSHINE EVEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THAT’S YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST. HAVE MORE WEATHER COMING UP LATER ON IN THE SHOW.
TEASE
THANKS, CINDI. USDA’S AUGUST REPORT THREW CURVBEALLS INTO THE MARKET. BUT COULD WE SEE A REPEAT WHEN USDA RELEASES ITS SEPTEMBER PRODUCTION REPORT NEXT WEEK? WE’RE ON THE ROAD WITH ALAN BRUGLER, DON ROOSE AND ARLAN SUDERMAN NEXT.
ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT WELL ON THE ROAD THIS WEEK FROM THE FINAL FARM JOURNAL YIELD TOUR STOP HERE IN OMAHA NEBRASKA DAN ROOSE ALAN BRUGLER AND ARLAN SUDERMAN ON THE PANEL WITH ME THIS WEEK THE BIG STORY RIGHT NOW. LOOKING AT IT NEXT WEEK AS THIS USDA REPORT THAT’S COMING OUT. AUGUST REPORT DEFINITELY WAS NOT WHAT THE TRADE WAS EXPECTING. WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING OUT OF NEXT WEEK’S REPORT? WELL I THINK THE BIG THING IS THAT WE NOT GET ANY MORE BEARISH SURPRISES. I THINK THE TRADE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN A BETTER ATTITUDE TOWARD THE COMMODITY SECTOR AT LARGE. YOU LOOK ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OF COMMODITIES, WE’RE SEEING MONEY FLOW IN A LITTLE BIT WORRIED TO MAKE THE TOTAL ASSUMPTION BECAUSE IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE MONTH WITH NEW MONEY COMING IN THERE TO SET NEW TRENDS, BUT WE ARE TURNING THE CHARTS. SO I THINK WITH THE GRAIN AND OILSEEDS IF WE FAIL TO GET FRESH BEARISH NEWS: WE DON’T SEE THE YIELDS INCREASE SO TO SPEAK OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE, THEN I THINK THE FUNDS WILL GET BEHIND IT, ONCE WE HAVE THE ALGORITHMIC TRADERS TRADE IT THEN I THINK WE’LL START SEEING THE MONEY KIND OF COME BEHIND IT. SO YOU THINK ANY TYPE OF YIELD DECREASE SHAVING ANY BUSHEL OFF ONE TWO THREE WILL CREATE A BULLISH STORY? YEH MAYBE NOT INITIALLY IF IT’S STILL ABOVE WHAT THE AVERAGE TRADE GUESS AHEAD THAT THE ALGORITHMIC TRADERS HAVE PROGRAMMED IN. BUT AFTER THAT I THINK SO. I’M NOT BULLISH SO TO SPEAK, WE STILL HAVE BIG SUPPLIES OUT THERE. BUT I DO THINK THAT IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD WE’LL HAVE SLOW APPRECIATION OF PRICE. ALAN DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT OR DO YOU THINK WE NEED KIND OF A BIGGER CHUNK TAKEN OUT OF THIS THIS PRODUCTION. WELL I THINK WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT WE ARE COMING INTO WHAT’S TRADITIONALLY A HARVEST LOW PERIOD THAT IS THE FIRST OF OCTOBER CASH AVERAGE PRICE FOR THE U.S. TYPICALLY BOTTOMS FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. WE’RE GETTING A NICE LITTLE SHORT COVERING RALLY, WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH FUND MONEY COMING IN AS ARLAN MENTIONED. THE MARKET WAS SET UP PERFECTLY FOR THAT WITH THE TECHNICAL SETUP. WE WERE WAY OVERSOLD AT THE END OF AUGUST. SO I THINK WE’VE GOT WE’VE GOT PERMISSION TO GO UP INTO THE CROP REOPO. HOLDING AND THOSE GAINS INTO LATE SEPTEMBER IS GOING TO BE A LITTLE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I THINK IF YOU WERE TO GET THE U.S. CORN YIELD DOWN TO 167 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT THAT WOULD ALLOW US TO EXTEND THE GAINS. SO EVEN AT 167 YOU’RE THINKING JUST A COUPLE OR A FEW BUSHELS OFF WOULD CREATE A STORY THERE. WHAT ABOUTIN SOYBEANS THOUGH DON, I MEAN I KNOW IT’S STILL KIND OF EARLY ON WE ARE GOING TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THIS CROP, BUT WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN WITH THE SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND YIELD TO REALLY SEE THE MARKET REACT IN A POSITIVE WAY? WELL I THINK THE REAL QUESTION MARK IS YOU KNOW HAVE WE PUT IN OR SEASONAL LOW, NOT ONLY ON SOYBEANS BUT ON CORN AND THE WHEAT MARKET. FROM AN OVERALL CROP CONDITION RATING, THE CROP RATINGS WHERE THEY’RE AT, 61 PERCENT, REALLY THAT PUTS YOU A LITTLE CLOSER TO 47 BUSHELS AN ACRE. SO IF YOU LOOK IT, IF YOU TAKE 2.5 BUSHELS OFF OF THE YIELDS YOU KNOW YOU’RE YOU KNOW YOU CAN GET A CARRY OUT DOWN UNDER 300 MILLION. SO I THINK IT WOULD BE WITH THE DRY AUGUST THAT WE’VE HAD, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR THE YIELD TO GO UP. SO I THINK IF A YIELD COMES DOWN WE’LL PROBABLY ADD SOME RISK PREMIUM TO THE MARKET. REMEMBER OF THE CHINESE ARE TERRIFIC BUYERS OF THE MARKET. YEAH WE’VE SEEN THIS DEMAND STORY PLAY OUT IN THE SOYBEANS, SO PRODUCTION WISE CONSIDERING DEMAND, CONSIDERING THE STOCKS PRODUCTION WISE ON BOTH CORN AND BEANS, WHAT NUMBER DO YOU WANT TO SEE OUT OF USDA NEXT WEEK? WELL YOU KNOW I THINK IS PROBABLY MORE OF THE REACTION THAN THE ACTUAL PRICE IS WHAT I WOULD LOOK AT. BUT YOU KNOW I THINK IT’S GOING TO BE HARD TO GET A CARRY OUT DOWN UNDER 2 BILLION BUSHELS. I DON’T KNOW IF IT REALLY MATTERS. I THINK WHAT IT REALLY IS AS THE PRODUCER JUST AT THESE PRICE LEVELS PARTICULARLY WHEAT AND CORN, HE’S JUST NOT INTERESTED IN SELLING. SO, HE’S TUCKING IT AWAY FROM THE MARKET AND THE CARRIES ARE GIVING YOU THAT. SO I WOULD SAY THE BOTTOM LINE, LOOK AT HOW ROCK RATHER NOT THE NUMBERS. YEAH. AND AGAIN YOU ALLUDED THAT TO THAT TO, ARLAN, BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT TYPE OF STORY ARE YOU LOOKING FOR TO COME OUT OF THIS REPORT REGARDING WHEAT. WELL I LOOKED FOR USDA TO ADD SOME MORE BUSHELS TO THE BLACK SEA CROP. I THINK WE’LL PROBABLY SEE RUSSIA’S NUMBER AND PERHAPS UKRAINE’S NUMBER PUSH UP A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. BUT AT THIS POINT DOES IT REALLY MATTER? WE’VE EXCEEDED EXPORT CAPACITY OUT OF RUSSIA, SO THEY CAN PRODUCE ALL THE MORE THEY WANT BUT THEY CAN’T EXPORT MORE THAN WHAT THEY HAVE, THEY CAN’T EXPORT WHAT WE KNOW NOW THAT THEY’VE PRODUCED. AND U.S. HARD RED WINTER WHEAT IS VERY WELL POSITIONED THERE, AND I’M LOOKING FOR USDA TO EVENTUALLY PUSH OUR EXPORT NUMBER HIGHER. WE’VE STILL GOT A BIG SUPPLY. SO IT’S GOING TO BE A LONG TIME BEFORE WE CAN TALK ABOUT BEING BULLISH WHEAT. BUT I DO THINK THAT WE CAN CONFIRM NEAR-TERM LOWS. WELL USDA REPORT COULD BE A MAJOR STORY NEXT WEEK. YOU KNOW HERE IN IN IN OMAHA WAS WATCHING THE LOCAL NEWS AND TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MORNING. WE’RE AROUND 32 DEGREES AND IN SOME AREAS SO WE’RE SEEING THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COME INTO PLAY. DO YOU THINK THAT A FROST STORY CAN BREW AND WHAT’S OUR WINDOW FOR THAT. WELL I THINK IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ANYWHERE UP TO THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE CRIME AUTHORITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT BEHIND. BUT AGAIN THE WERE SUPPOSED TO WARM UP. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOW DAY OF THE OF THE WEEK. AND THEN WE START TO SEE THEM THE WESTERN CORN BELT WARM UP A LITTLE BIT GOING FORWARD SO I THINK WE’VE PROBABLY DODGED THE BULLET HERE FOR THIS ONE. BUT AGAIN IF YOU HIT ANOTHER COLD SPELL TWO WEEKS OUT I THINK IT WILL IT COULD HAVE A LITTLE LEG TO IT THE PROBLEM IS OF COURSE THE CROP WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MATURE TO. YOU’RE TALKING TESTS WAY TO IMPACTS MORE THAN MASSIVE LOSSES HERE. YOU AGREE WITH THAT OR DO YOU THINK THAT WE COULD GET A STORY IF WE START TO SEE SOME PICTURES OF FROST. WELL YOU KNOW TYPICALLY WE LOSE FIVE TO 10 TO 15 MILLION BUSHELS EVERY YEAR FROM SOME LOW LYING AREAS SO I WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT. BUT YOU KNOW I’M MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY WEATHER THAT WE’VE HAD IN AUGUST. I THINK IT JUST WASN’T THE FINISH THAT YOU WANTED. I THINK IN THE NEXT FIVE TO 10 DAYS IT’S NOT GOING TO MATTER. AND I THINK THAT’S A REAL ISSUE FOR THE SOYBEANS. IT JUST WASN’T THE AUGUST THAT YOU WERE HOPING FOR FOR BIG YIELD THE SAME TIME WE JUST SAW HURRICANE HARVEY WE HAD HURRICANE IRMA KNOCKING I MEAN SOME DEFINITELY WILL GET A POSSIBLE IMPACT IN THE SOUTH OF THAT ALSO A WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR. I MEAN THAT SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR FOR EXPORTS SO IS THAT A STORY THAT WE CAN COUNT ON COMING UP IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WE’LL TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.
ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK AGAIN WE’RE FROM THE FARM JOURNAL. YIELD TO WE’RE A BIG THINK OF. THANKS TO THE SPONSORS FOR THIS. ARLAN, YOU KNOW WE TALKED ABOUT HURRICANE HARVEY SAW THE DEVASTATION THAT HIT IN TEXAS LOUISIANA. SOME OF THOSE AREAS YOU KNOW WERE RECORDING THIS BEFORE THE HURRICANES REALLY MAKING LANDFALL HERE IN THE U.S. BUT WHAT POSSIBLE IMPACT DO YOU THINK WE COULD SEE FROM THAT ON AGRICULTURE. WELL HURRICANE HARVEY CERTAINLY HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE LOCAL CROPS BUT THAT’S A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OVERALL OVERALL I THINK PROBABLY COTTON AND RICE THE BIGGEST DIRECT IMPACT AS FAR AS IMPACTING SUPPLIES CERTAINLY HAD AN IMPACT ON RAIL AND MOVEMENT OF GRAIN AND LOADING ON THE PORTS. AS WE LOOK AT IRMAK COMING INTO FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST CERTAINLY GOING TO DO IS DISRUPT SOME MOVEMENT TO GRAIN SOME CROPS INVOLVED THERE AS WELL. COTTON PROBABLY GOING TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ONCE AGAIN MUCH OF THIS COTTON CROP HAS ALREADY BEEN BOOKED BY THE MILLS AND NEEDED. AND SO WE’RE IN A SITUATION WHERE WE’RE SEEING THE MARKETS START TO REFLECT THAT THOSE CONCERNS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PERCENTAGE OF CORN AND SOYBEANS. NOT MUCH IMPACT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LOCAL PEOPLE BOTH LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS AND MOVEMENT OF GRAIN AS WELL AS PRODUCERS HAVE CROPS IN THE FIELD. IT’S A PRETTY BIG IMPACT. ALL RIGHT SWITCHING GEARS OVER TO THE U.S. DOLLAR. SAW A WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR. YOU KNOW ALAN, IT WAS SURPRISING, EVEN WHEN WE SAW STRENGTH IN THIS DOLLAR EXPORTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY PRETTY STRONG. SO WE SEE THE US DOLLAR WEAKENED KIND OF. WHO BENEFITS THE MOST FROM THAT. WELL OBVIOUSLY IT MAKES US A LITTLE MORE COMPETITIVE IN THE EXPORT MARKET RELATIVE TO BRAZIL OR ARGENTINA OR SOMEBODY ELSE WHO DEPENDS ON WHO YOU’RE WHO YOU’RE WEAKENING. WE TALK ABOUT THE DOLLAR AS AN INDEX, BUT IT’S INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY RELATIONSHIPS THAT DRIVE THE COMPETITIVENESS. YOU KNOW WE’RE WATCHING THE DOLLAR PRETTY CLOSELY OR THE DX WHICH IS ONLY ONE OF THREE OR FOUR WAYS OF MEASURING THE DOLLAR INDEX IS AT 92. THAT IS A MAJOR CHART SUPPORT POINT ON THE WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARGE. IF WE BREAK THAT IT GOES DOWN TO 88 AND A HALF OR SO. THAT WOULD BE A 4 PERCENT SWING. WELL IF IF IF THE DOLLAR IS 4 PERCENT WEAKER, IT TAKES 4 PERCENT MORE DOLLARS TO BUY THE SAME SUPPLY AND DEMAND VALUE, THAT’D BE 30 SOME CENTS A BUSHEL IN SOYBEANS. SO WE ARE TALKING SOME SIGNIFICANT PRICE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL, IF THE DOLLAR WEAKENS FURTHER. BUT AGAIN I WOULD CAUTION WE ARE AT A TECHNICAL SUPPORT POINT HERE, AND WE EXPECT THAT THE SOME OF THE SHORTS THAT TAKE SOME OF THE MONEY OFF THE TABLE. ALL RIGHT WELL LABOR DAY WEEK WAS A BIG WEEK IN THE HOG MARKET ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SAW TWO MAJOR PROCESSING PLANTS COME ONLINE. WE KNOW THAT THE DEMAND IS HAPPENING THERE. SO WE SEE SUPPLIES INCREASE AND IT’S REALLY A SUPPLY STORY RIGHT NOW. BUT IS THE DEMAND ON THE OTHER SIDE TO EAT THROUGH THIS PROCESS PRODUCT. WELL AND THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. I THINK THAT’S WHAT WE’RE GOING TO SORT OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT THERE’S NO DOUBT WE’RE IN A SUPPLY BEAR MARKET ON THE HOG. YOU LOOK AT LAST YEAR WE WENT DOWN TO CLOSE TO $41 A 100 LATE ON DECEMBER 2015 YOU WENT DOWN TO $52 A HUNDRED WEIGHT. YOU KNOW WE GOT UP OVER $60 A 108 THIS LAST WEEK. BUT YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE SUPPLIES THAT ARE REALLY ON THE RISE TWO PERCENT MORE IN THE THIRD QUARTER FOUR PERCENT MORE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. BUT THEN WHEN YOU JUMP OUT OF THE SECOND QUARTER NEXT YEAR ALMOST 7 PERCENT MORE THAN A YEAR AGO. SO NO DOUBT THESE PROCESSING PLANTS COMING ONBOARD IT’S A BIG DEAL. IT’S REALLY GOING TO INCREASE THE SLAUGHTER CAPACITY AND IT’S GOING TO HELP THE OVERALL DEMAND FROM A PRODUCER STANDPOINT. SO WHAT IMPACT DO YOU THINK THAT HAS ON PRICE. WELL I TELL YOU I THINK YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE TO EXPAND THE EXPORTS AND YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE TO EXPAND THE DOMESTIC. I THINK IT’S GOING TO HAVE MORE OF A BASIS EFFECT THAN THEY DO A FLAT PRICE. I THINK UNTIL WE SORT THROUGH THIS YOU HAVE TO USE RALLIES AS RISK MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A SUPPLY BEAR MARKET. ARLAN DO YOU THINK DEMAND CAN KEEP UP ON THIS PORK SIDE AND ULTIMATELY WHAT ARE YOU FORECASTING FOR PRICE. WELL AND THAT’S WHERE THE WEAK DOLLAR REALLY PLAYS IN THE WHEAT MARKET INTO A MEAT MARKET OR TWO PLACES WHERE THE DOLLAR HAS ITS BIGGEST IMPACT. WE SAW WEEKLY EXPORT SALES IN THE LAST USDA REPORT SHOWING VERY STRONG PORK AND BEEF EXPORTS. THE WEAKER DOLLAR FINALLY STARTED TO HAVE AN EFFECT THERE. WHEN WE LOOK BACK TO MID-AUGUST WE’VE SEEN BELLY PRICES DOWN ABOUT 70 CENTS DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME THAT ALL OF THE OTHER PRODUCT CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN RISING IN PRICE. DEMAND HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE. SO I THINK WE’RE STARTING TO FIND AN AREA NOW WHERE DEMAND STARTS SUPPORT. ALAN IT’S ALSO A SUPPLY STORY IN THIS CATTLE MARKET SO YOU KNOW IF WE CONTINUE TO GROW SUPPLIES IT DOESN’T SEEM LIKE THAT’S GOING TO BE FAVORABLE TO PRICES. YEAH I THINK WE’VE GOT A REAL CHALLENGE AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED WHOLE PRODUCTIONS OF THE PORT PRODUCTION IS UP BUT THE BEEF PRODUCTION IS ALSO WE’RE AT A SEVEN OR EIGHT YEAR HIGH LIKELY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION CHICKEN PRODUCTION CONTINUES EXPAND OR 2 OR 3 PERCENT PER YEAR. SO YOU’VE GOT THIS TOTAL MEAT SUPPLY THAT YOU’VE GOT TO MOVE AND WE’RE STILL IN THE RAMPING UP PART OF THE CATTLE CYCLE AT THIS POINT. SO YEAH WE’RE A LITTLE BEARISH ON THE MEAT MARKET IN GENERAL BECAUSE WE’VE GOT TO MOVE ALL THIS PRODUCT OUT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER CATTLE CYCLE LOW IS DUE IN THE FUTURES THOUGH SO THAT MIGHT HELP US. ALL RIGHT THANKS SO WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WE’LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.
MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. ARLAN, WE’LL START WITH YOU. I THINK SOYBEANS HAD THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO POP IF WE GET A SMALLER CROP BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO STRONG. I’M NOT BULLISH THE GRAIN AND OILSEEDS. BUT I DO LIKE THE MONEY COMING BACK INTO THE COMMODITIES AND I THINK WE CAN APPRECIATE PRICES OVER THE COMING YEARS, AS MORE MONEY COMES INTO THE COMMODITY SECTOR. ALAN. YOU NEED TO REMEMBER THE MARKET IS IS NOT A POGUE’S HOCKEY STICK IT’S A POGO STICK. IT DOESN’T JUST GO DOWN AND LAY THERE WHEN WE HAVE THESE BIG SUPPLIES. IT MOVES AROUND. YOU SHOULD EXPECT A TRADING RANGE OF ABOUT A DOLLAR A BUSHEL OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS AND CORN AND YOU JUST HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITIES. ALL RIGHT. THANKS. DON. I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS NEXT YEAR REMEMBER THE GOVERNMENT’S TELLING US THAT NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE LAST YEAR DID. MAKE SURE YOU ANALYZE THE CARRIES THAT WE HAVE IN THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKET. PROBABLY TRY AND MERCHANDISE YOURSELF OUT OF THE MARKET RATHER SPECULATE YOURSELF OUT OF THE MARKET. SO THERE’S OPPORTUNITIES WITH THE CARRIES IN THE MARKET. MAKE SURE YOU ANALYZE THOSE AND USE THEM TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE I APPRECIATE IT. WE DID TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT.
JOHN’S WORLD
IMAGES CAPTURED FROM DRONES ARE SOMETHING WE LOVE TO AIR ON OUR PROGRAM, JUST BECAUSE IT’S A VIEW YOU CANT SEE FROM THE GROUND. BUT FOR FARMING PURPOSES, HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO SATELLITE IMAGERY? HERE’S JOHN PHIPPS. A FEW WEEKS AGO I POKED FUN AT AG DRONES POINTING OUT THAT IT’S HARD TO GENERATE INCOME BY FLYING OVER CROPS. THERE IS ANOTHER MORE SERIOUS REASON WHY I AM NOT ON THE DRONE BANDWAGON - THEY MAY BE SUPERFLUOUS SOON. CONSIDER THIS SCREENSHOT OF MY HOUSE FROM GOOGLE MAPS. NOW LET’S SWITCH TO THE SATELLITE VIEW. SINCE SHIFTING TO LANDSAT 8 LAST YEAR, THE RESOLUTION ON GOOGLE EARTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE SPOOKY. THE SATELLITE IS 435 MILES HIGH AND ORBITS THE EARTH ABOUT EVERY 100 MINUTES. IT RECORDS 700 SCENES PEER DAY. THIS IMAGE IS FROM ABOUT THIS TIME IN 2015. IMAGES ARE SELECTED BY HOW RAPIDLY THINGS ON THE GROUND ARE CHANGING SO UPDATES FOR MY LOCATION ARE UNPREDICTABLE. WHAT I WANT TO SHOW IS THIS. IF YOU ZOOM INTO THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION, I NOTED WITH SOME CONSTERNATION YOU COULD TELL IF ANYONE WAS IN THE POOL. ASIDE FROM MAKING ME THINK TWICE ABOUT SKINNY-DIPPING, THIS SUGGESTS TO ME THAT IF THE PUBLIC IMAGES ARE THIS GOOD, WHAT MUST THE MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE IMAGES FROM SATELLITES BE LIKE? REGARDLESS, MUCH OF MY SKEPTICISM ON THE FUTURE OF DRONES IS BASED ON THE PREDICTION THAT AS SATELLITES BECOME SMALLER, MORE SOPHISTICATED AND MUCH CHEAPER TO LAUNCH, WE MAY NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY FROM NEARLY REAL TIME CROP MONITORING FROM SPACE. EVEN WEEKLY IMAGES OF YOUR FARM WOULD BE POWERFUL TOOLS, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT WOULD BE EASY TO STACK SUCCESSIVE SHOTS INTO A STOP ACTION VIDEO OF THE CROP DEVELOPING. IT’S EASY TO FORGET HOW TWO DIMENSIONAL OUR THINKING IS. CLIMBING TO TOP OF THE GRAIN BIN CAN BE A SURPRISING EPIPHANY - AND THAT’S ONLY 50-ODD FEET. THE IDEA BEHIND DRONES MAY BE VALID, BUT IT LOOKS TO ME LIKE THAT TYPE OF INFORMATION WILL BE BETTER AND CHEAPER WHEN IT COMES FROM SPACE. THANKS, JOHN. FOUR YEARS OF NEGATIVE NET FARM INCOME IS THE REALITY IN FARM COUNTRY. BUT WEATHERING THAT STORM IS WHERE FARMERS SHINE. SO, ARE BETTER DAYS AHEAD? THAT’S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.
HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. FARMERS’ SENTIMENTS SLIP, BUT FUTURE OUTLOOKS IMPROVE. THE RESULTS ARE IN FROM THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMTER. REILLIENCY REIGNS IN FARM COUNTRY, WITH FARM BANKRUPTCIES MUTED. BUT WILL THAT CONTINUE? THAT’S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. BAXTER BLACK HAS THE THEORY OF THE TRIANGLE AND JOHN PHIPPS HAS SOME EYE CATCHING GADGETS TO SHOW OFF IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT.
FARMER SENTIMENTS ON THE AG ECONOMY
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...FARMERS’ SENTIMENTS SLIPPING IN A RECENT SURVEY, AS SLUGGISH GRAIN PRICES EAT INTO OUTLOOKS. BUT THOSE SENTIMENTS STILL SITTING WELL ABOVE YEAR-AGO LEVELS. THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMETER SHOWING FARMER SENTIMENTS DIPPING TO 132, DOWN 7 POINTS FROM JULY’S SURVEY. PURDUE AND CME BASE THEIR INDEX ON A SURVEY OF 400 PRODUCERS. THE DROP IN SENTIMENTS FROM PRESSURED PRICES, BUT PRODUCER SENTIMENTS STILL NOTICABLY ABOVE YEAR AGO LEVELS. “THESE ARE NOT SAYING THAT THINGS ARE OVERALL GOOD TIMES IN THE AG ECONOMY THERE’S STILL A LOT OF CONCERN FOR THE PRODUCERS THINK THAT THERE ARE REPORTS OF THEIR OPERATION IS WORSE OFF TODAY THAN A YEAR AGO. SO THIS UNDERSCORES A DIFFICULT TIME OUT THERE BUT WE HAVEN’T SEEN. WE’VE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AND SOME MODERATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS AND WE’VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN SENTIMENT AS A RESULT. “DESPITE THE DIP IN MOOD SHORT-TERM, FARMERS REMAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE EXPECTATIONS. <"BY WORKING TOGETHER, WE’RE GOING TO WORK TO RESTORE AMERICA’S COMPETITIVE EDGE” >
FARMERS AND RANCHERS LOOKING FOR REPREIVE FROM WHAT SOME VIEW AS A BURDEONSOMETAX CODE. THE PRESIDENT REVEALING A FEW MORE DETAILS OF HIS PLANS TO OVERHAUL THE CURRENT TAX PLAN IN NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEK. THAT INCLUDES HITTING A CHORD WITH FARMERS, SAYING HE PLANS TO THROW OUT THE ESTATE, OR DEATH TAX. EVEN CALLING IT A TREMENDOUS BURDEN FOR FAMILY FARMERS AND OTHER BUSINESSES. DURING THE PRESIDENT’S SPEECH, HE PROMISED AMERICANS HE WON’T ALLOW THE DEATH TAX TO CRUSH THE AMERICAN DREAM. THE PRESIDENT SAYS TAX REFORM INCLUDES A FOUR-POINT PLAN…
DEMOCRATS LIKE NORTH DAKOTA SENATOR HEIDI HEITKAMP SAYS THE PLAN STILL LACKS NECESSARY DETAILS.
NAFTA TALKS
ROUND 2 OF NAFTA NEGOTIATOINS NOW IN THE BOOKS,W ITHOUT ANY MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS ON A NEW TRADE PACT. TRADE OFFICIALS FROM THE MEXICO, CANAD AND THE U- S MET IN MEXICO TO BUT THE PRESIDENT ALSO THREATENING TO RMOVE THE U-S FROM THE SOUTH KOREAN TRADE DEAL, “I’M REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE SABER RATTLING OF TRADE, AND WE NEED TO DSEE EXPANDING TRADE NOT LIMITING TRADE. SO IF WE’RE GOING OT RENEGOTIATE NAFTA, LET’S BE CAREFUL BECAUSE MEXICO AND CANDA IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT TRADING PARTNER FOR ALMOST EVERY STATE WE SURVEY. "> GOSS THINKS THE GRAIN SECTOR HAS THE MOST AT STAKE WHEN LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT NAFTA.
MEAT EXPORT NUMBERS
ALL THIS TALK ABOUT TRADE, THE LATEST NUMBERS FROM U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SHOWS BEEF SHIPMENTS WERE THE SHINING STAR IN JULY. U-S-M-E-F SAYSBEEF EXPORTS UP FIVE PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR IN VOLUME. AND 18-PERCENT HIGHER IN VALUE. SHIPMENTS TO JAPAN CLIMBING 20-PERCENT FROM JULY 2016, BUT THAT’S BEFORE JAPAN SLAPPED AN INCREASED TARIFF ON U-S BEEF. IT’S A DIFFERENT STORY FOR PORK. THE U-S SHIPMENTS WERE DOWN FOUR PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO IN VOLUME. ONE BRIGHT-SPOT - PORK EXPORTS TO SOUTH KOREA SHOT 30-PERCENT HIGHER YEAR OVER YEAR.
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES
IT’S DROUGHT EATING INTO OUTLOOKS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AND AS DRYNESS TIGHTENS ITS GRIP, WILDFIRES RAGE. SO FAR, THE FLAMES CHARRING NEARLY 1 POINT 5 MILLION ACRES, FORCING EVACUATIONS AND RANCHERS FINDING SAFER GROUND FOR LIVESTOCK. CHECK OUT THIS DRAMATIC TIMELAPSE VIDEO OF THE FIERCE FIRES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AREA IN WASHINGTON STATE. IT SHOWS YOU HOW QUICKLY THE WILDFIRES CONSUME AREAS, WITH THIS VIDEO TAKEN BETWEEN THIS WAS SHOT IN 12 HOURS. THEDROUGHT IN MONTANA A BREEDING GROUND FOR WILDFIRES, ONGOING FOR MONTHS, WITH MORE THAN 1 MILLION ACRES BURNED IN THAT STATE ALONE THIS YEAR.
WEATHER
THAT’S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST CINDI CLAWSON JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. CINDI, FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST, TO HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEAST, IT’S TWO EXTREMES FOR OUR VIEWERS.. HOPEFULLY THERE’S RELIEF IN YOUR EXTENDED OUTLOOK... YEAH, TYNE IT DEFINITELY HAS BEEN STRESSFUL ON IT FOR BOTH REASONS. YOU KNOW YOU’VE GOT TWO DIFFERENT EXTREMES BETWEEN HURRICANES AND WILDFIRES AND YOU DON’T CERTAINLY WANT TO SEE ANY OF THAT. LET’S START OFF WITH THE JET STREAM AND WE ARE LOOKING AT STILL A PRETTY BIG RIDGE IN THE NATION’S MIDSECTION THAT’S GOING TO KEEP THOSE TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE IS GOING TO BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FOR A LOT OF FOLKS IT’S BEEN COOL SO IT’LL BE NICE AND WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE IRMA ON OUR FORECAST MODEL SHOWING THE JET STREAM YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THE LOW PRESSURE OVER IRMA THERE. WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES OUT IN THE WEST. BUT NOTICE WE START TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIP IN THE JET STREAM AGAIN BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL RIGHT HERE’S A LOOK AT OUR 30 DAY TEMPERATURES. WE’RE GOING TO BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ALL THE WAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. IT’S A LITTLE BIT WARM OUT INTO THE WEST AND INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WE ARE LOOKING AT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD A LITTLE BIT OUT IN THE WEST BUT MOST OF THE NATION’S MIDSECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE. TYNE.
FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS, CINDI. USDA REVISING IT’S NET FARM INCOME FORECAST, SHOWING NET FARM INCOME COULD BE IN THE GREEN THIS YEAR, UP 13 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. BUT IT’S THE TALE OF TWO STORIES, WITH THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR PERFORMING BETTER THAN GRAINS. DESPITE TURBULENCE IN FARM COUNTRY, ECONOMISTS CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED BY FARMERS’ RESILIENCY. THE GRIM OUTLOOK ON THE FARM ECONOMY IS A BROKEN RECORD FOR FARMERS, WITH FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS OF NEGATIVE NET FARM INCOME. . BUT AFTER MULTIPLE YEARS OF DECLINING CASH FLOW, SIGNS ARE MODESTLYU POINTING UP. I THINK IT’S PROBABLY BETTER THAN WE EXPECTED LAST YEAR, BUT STILL NOWHERE NEAR WHERE WE WANT IT TO BE. JACKSON TAKACH IS AN ECONOMIST FOR FARMERMAC. IN THE LATEST QUARTERLY EDITION OF THE FEED, FARMER MAC REVEALING LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS FAIRING BETTER THAN THEIR GRAIN COUNTERPARTS SO FAR IN 2017. . IF YOU LOOK AT THE DAIRY INDUSTRY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CATTLE INDUSTRY HOGS POULTRY ALMOST IN THE LIVESTOCK SECTORS, CASH RECEIPTS LOOK TO BE UP THIS YEAR COMPARED TO 16; MUCH HIGHER THAN WE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. FARMERMAC SAYS DESPITE THE CRUMBLING CORN PRICES, THE OVERALL AG ECONOMY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF REBOUNDING. I THINK WE’RE ON OUR WAY. I DO THINK THAT THE DECLINES IN NET FARMING INOME HAVE STARTED TO LEVEL OFF ; WE SAW A BOUNCE THIS YEAR IN NET FARM INCOME AND NET CASH INCOME IS WHAT WE’RE EXPECTING. SO MAYBE WE’RE CLOSE TO THAT BOTTOM NOW BUT IT’S THOES FARMING AREAS HEAVILY RELIANT PON ROW CROPS STILL SHOWING STRESS. IN OUR AREA, I PROJECT WE’RE GOING TO SEE FLAT INCOMES, AT BEST. OBVISOULY THERE’S GOING TO BE SOME OUTLIARS, BUT IN CONTRACST, I’D SAY WE ARE LOOKING AT FLAT INCOMES IN CONTRAST TO LAST YEAR. HOSKINS SAYS THE YIELD STORY IS STILL UNWRITTEN, BUT ONCE COMBINES ROLL THIS FALL, A MORE ACCURATE FINANCIAL PICTURE WILL BE PORTRAYED. “WE’RE DEFINITELY SEEING SOME PEOPLE THAT ARE GOING THROUGH SOME STRESS FINANCIALLY, NO QUESTIONS, IT HINK ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS THE STRESS IN WORKING CAPITAL. " HOSKINS SAYS AFTER HARVEST, WHEN PRODUCERS PUSH THE PENCIL TO PAPER, IF RED IS THE FINAL NUMBER, CONVERSATION IS KEY. DON’T BE AFRAID TO HAVE HTAT CONVERSATION WITH YOUR LENDER, WITH YOUR SPOUSE, WITH THE PERSON HELPING YOU WITH MARKETING BECAUSE JUST BECAUSE IT DOESN’T PENCIL OUT THIS YEAR, CANDIDLY, THERE WERE OPERATIONS THAT RAN INTO SITUATIONS THIS YEAR, WHERE IT DIDN’T PENCIL OUT” HOSKINS SAYS IN SOME CASES, THERE’S STILL ENOUGH WORKING CAPITAL RESERVE TO STILL OFFSET DOWN YEARS. BUT IT’S THAT WORKING CAPITAL THAT’S HELPED MANY PRODUCERS SURVIVE THE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS. THAT’S THE SURPRISING FACTOR IN THIS. DELINQUECINES ARE UP. BAKFUPTRICES OR FLORECLOSURES ARE UP, BUT NOT WHAT YOU’D EXPECT. WE’VE HAD FOUR STRARIGHT WE’VE HAD FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS OF DECLINING INCOME.THE DELINQUENCY RATES ARE STILL VERY LOW. I WOULD HAVE EXPECTED MORE OF A MOVEMENT IF WE WERE GOING TO HAVE A REALLY SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN THE FARM FINANCIAL SECTOR. SO THEY’RE STILL PRETTY LOW HISTORICALLY, BUT THEY ARE UP FROM THE FROM ABSOLUTE LOWS THAT WE SAW BACK WHEN 2016, SO THAT WAS KIND OF THE BOTTOM OF THE LEVEL OF DELINQUENCIES AT BANKS AND FARM CREDITS. SO IT’S UP A LITTLE BIT BUT IT’S NOT UP DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THE LEVELS THAT WE SAW MAYBE IN 2009 DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE GREAT RECESSION. SO WE’RE NOT SEEING ANY SORT OF JUMPS LIKE WE DID BACK THEN. SO I THINK THAT’S A PRETTY POSITIVE SIGN LOOKING FORWARD. THAT RESILLIENCY IS ONE REASON TAKACH HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE OUTLOOK ON THE FARM ECONOMY. WELL I’VE GOT TO GIVE THE ECONOMY SOMEONE LIKE A B- MINUS MAYBE UPGRADED FROM A C EARLIER THIS YEAR JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN THE LIVESTOCK THAT THAT HALF OF THE AG SECTOR IS DOING MUCH BETTER THAN WE EXPECTED SO THEY’RE KIND OF RAISING THE TIDE A LITTLE BIT. > WHILE GOSS FORSEES CONTINUED PAIN FOR PRODUCERS FOR NEXT FEW MONTHS , IT’S THE START OF A NEW CALENDAR YEAR THAT COULD BRING A FRESH START, IMPROVING FROM HIS C-GRADE TODAY. - WHEN YOU PUT LIVESTOCK IN WITH GRAINS, IT GETS BETTER. AND THAT C I EXPECT TO MOVE UP TO B BY THE QUARTER 1 OF 2018.” DESPITE UNCERTAINTLY SURROUNDING TRADE, GOSS LIKES WHAT HE SEES REGARDING EXPORTS. THAT’S WHY HE THINKS A DECLINING U-S DOLLAR AND TRADE WILL HELP DRIVE IMPROVED AG CONDITIONS INTO THE NEW YEAR. ALSO, IF YOU’D LIKE A COPY OF FARMERMAC’S THE FEED WHICH COMES OUT LATE NEXT WEEK, JUST GO TO FARMERMAC.COM AND SIGN UP.
TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. IS ANYONE LISTENING OUT THERE?
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IF YOU’VE WATCHED OUR PROGRAM OVER THE YEARS, YOU KNOW JOHN IS A FAN OF TECHNOLOGY. AND IT’S SOME OF THOSE GADGETS THAT CATCH VIEWERS’ ATTENTION ON THE FARM. JOHN. A FEW WEEKS AGO, I TALKED ABOUT HOW OUR BRAINS CAN STRUGGLE WHEN WE ARE IN SCARCITY MODE, SOMETHING I THOUGHT MIGHT HELP PEOPLE IMPROVE THEIR DECISION MAKING DURING HARVEST. BUT FOR SOME OF YOU, THERE WAS A DIFFERENT MESSAGE. THERE WAS THIS EMAIL FROM CHERRI KLINGINSMITH: “IS THAT AN ELECTRIC OPENER ON YOUR STRAIGHT TRUCK? WHERE DID YOU FIND THAT?” AND AN EVEN BETTER ONE FROM LARRY BOWHAY: “ON AUG 27 YOU WERE ON YOUR FARM STANDING BEHIND TWO TANDEMS. IT LOOKED LIKE YOU HAVE HYDRAULIC ASSIST CYLINDERS ON YOUR END GATES OF THOSE TRUCKS. MY MOM IS 84 AND WANTS TO DRIVE THE TWO TONS ANOTHER YEAR LIKE SHE HAS THE LAST 60 PLUS YEARS BUT HER PROBLEM IS GETTING THE END GATES UP. WHERE DID YOU GET THE ASSIST CYLINDERS FOR THE END GATES? TRYING TO RETIRE HER BUT YOU KNOW HOW THAT GOES. LOCAL GRAIN ELEVATOR HELP WOULD MISS HER THOUGH.” LOOK, I HATE TO BE A PARTY TO ELDER ABUSE, BUT MY SON JUST HAD THIS CONVERSATION WITH THE LADY I LIVE WITH, WHO IS SLIGHTLY YOUNGER, SO I KNOW WHERE YOU ARE COMING FROM, LARRY. FARM JOURNAL HAS A STRICT PROHIBITION ON ENDORSEMENTS, BUT I’M MAKING AN EXCEPTION HERE. THE ELECTRIC GRAIN GATE IS MADE BY SHURCO. IF YOU GOOGLE “SHURCO ELECTRIC GATE” YOU’LL GO RIGHT TO IT. THIS WILL BE OUR SECOND YEAR WITH THE GRAIN GATE, HOIST CONTROL, AND ELECTRIC TARP, AND WE’VE BEEN HAPPY WITH THE PERFORMANCE OF ALL OF THEM. YOU CAN CONTROL THE GATE FROM THE BACK OF THE BED, BUT FOR UNLOADING AT AN AUGER WITH THE WIND SWIRLING AROUND, THE REMOTE IS A HUGE IMPROVEMENT, BECAUSE YOU CAN STAND UPWIND. NOT ONLY IS IT A BACK-SAVER, IT KEEPS PEOPLE CLEANER AND SAFER. NOTE IT IS NOT FAST, BUT THAT IS A GOOD THING, I THINK. INSTALLATION WAS NOT HARD, AND WE’VE HAD ZERO PROBLEMS. IF ANYONE FROM SHURCO IS WATCHING, I DO ACCEPT FREE-WILL DONATIONS. THANKS FOR WATCHING, SEND ME AN ADDRESS FOR A MUG AND MAYBE I’LL STUMBLE ON TO A TOPIC THAT WILL HOLD YOUR ATTENTION A LITTLE BETTER.
TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, JUST EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. UP NEXT, WE HEAD OUT WEST TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK.
BAXTER BLACK
IT’S TIME NOW TO PAY A VISIT OUT WEST AND CATCH UP WITH BAXTER BLACK. TRIANGLES HAVE A UNIQUE PLACE IN OUR WORLD. ENGINEERS USE THEM TO BUILD BRIDGES. RIGOROUS USE THAT TO CREATE HIS THEOREM AND THEY SHORTSTOP USES IT TO MAKE A DOUBLE PLAY TRIANGLE STRENGTHEN STRUCTURES. IT TAKES THREE STRAIGHT LINES GOING NOWHERE AND FORM A BOND THAT CAN WITHSTAND GREAT PRESSURE. I GET TO SEE THIS COHESIVE COMBINATION IN ANOTHER TRIANGLE WOMAN HORSE CHILD IS REALLY EVIDENT WHEN THE CHILD HAS DOWN’S SYNDROME OR MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS OR ANY OTHER DISABILITY THAT RESTRICTS THEIR POSSIBILITIES. AND A LOT OF EQUINE THERAPEUTIC RIDING PROGRAMS THAT I’VE LISTED. WOMEN ARE THE PREDOMINANT HANDS ON THE HELPERS IN THE ARENA TO BE SUCCESSFUL. A MUTUAL TRUST HAS TO BE ESTABLISHED. A WOMAN INTRODUCES THE CHILD TO THE HORSE. AND THIS ALLOWS THE CHILD TO GIVE THE HORSE THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT BECAUSE THE WOMAN TRUSTS THE HORSE. AND THE CHILD TRUST THE WOMAN AND THE CHILD IS SET UP ON A HORSE’S BACK. IT’S REALLY STILL IN HIS MOTHER’S ARMS READY TO BE RESCUED IF NEED BE AND THROUGH A LONG PROGRESSION OF WALKS AROUND THE ARENA. THE CHILD’S FACE INCREASES IN THE HORSE AND EVENTUALLY THE CHILD WILL TRUST HIM. THE TRIANGLE IS COMPLETE. THEY’VE CONNECTED THE WOMAN TO THE CHILD TO THE HORSE AND BACK TO THE WOMAN. AND IT’S ESPECIALLY OBVIOUS THAT ANY EQUINE THERAPEUTIC RIDING CENTER. CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF. YOU’LL SEE SMALL ISLANDS OF WOMAN OR CHILD CONCENTRATE ON ONE OF THOSE TRIANGLES. AND THEN IMAGINE A CHILD ON THE HORSE IS YOURS. YOU’VE BECOME HYPER SENSITIVE TO THE SLIGHTEST MOVEMENT. BE IT PROTECTIVE OR ENCOURAGING OR LOVING AND EVEN THE SMALLEST STEP IN THIS MAGIC TRIANGLE PERFORMANCE GOING ON IN THE ARENA BECOMES MAGNIFIED. SUCCESSES ARE MARKED IN THE TINIEST GESTURE AND THE SLIGHTEST TOUCH AND A TENTATIVE SMILE. THE SKIP OF A HEARTBEAT. THROUGH THE CLOUD THAT PUTS YOU IN THEIR TRIANGLE. YOU HEAR THE SOFTEST OF VOICES SAY IT’S ALL RIGHT. HE WON’T HURT YOU. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK. COLLAPSING. [IF YOU’D LIKE TO HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER BLACK, VISIT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.
TEASE
UP NEXT, MACHINERY PETE SHOWCASES A TRACTOR GEM TURNING HEADS EVERYWHERE IT GOES. PLEASE STAY WITH US.
TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! WE’VE GOT A VERY UNIQUE PIECE TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY. THIS 1928 CENTAUR TRACTOR DRAWS ATTENTION EVERYWHERE IT GOES. OWNER TOM CHEEK TOLD US NOT MANY PEOPLE HAVE SEEN ONE QUITE LIKE IT. IT’S A 2 CYLINDER TRACTOR, BUILT IN OHIO AND PACKS A LOT OF CHARACTER. THIS IS A EARLY MODEL TRACTOR IT’S I CENTAUWER MADE BY THE CENTRAL TRACTOR COMPANY FROM GREENWICH OHIO MODEL G 2 CYLINDER 6 HORSEPOWER WATER COOLED TWO SPEEDS FORWARD NEW FORWARD NEUTRAL AND REVERSE. SO IT’S A VERY EARLY VERY EARLY TRACKER AND AS BEST AS I’M AWARE IT WAS MADE IN 1928. IT COULD HAVE BEEN MADE ANYWHERE FROM 1926 THROUGH 28 BUT IT WAS AN EARLY MODEL TRACTOR THAT WOULD ALLOW THE THE FARMER TO USE HIS HIS PREVIOUSLY PURCHASED MULE OR HORSE DRAWN EQUIPMENT WITH IT WITHOUT BUYING ANY ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT. THEY ENDED UP DOING QUITE A BIT OF IMPROVISING AND MADE SOME HEAVIER TRACTORS SOME FOR INDUSTRIAL MODELS WHICH EVEN HAD A LARGER MUCH LARGER ENGINE AND HALF OF THE ENGINE HAD A AIR COMPRESSOR ON IT. AND HALF OF IT WAS USED TO RUN IT. SO IF I COULD USE IT FOR INDUSTRIAL TOOLS I LIKE TO TRACK TRACTOR BECAUSE IT IS SO UNIQUE. I’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE TO WHAT IT IS. AND I HAD ONE ONE INDIVIDUAL THAT WAS 89 YEARS OLD COME UP AND SAY SON I’M 89 YEARS OLD AND HE SAID I’VE NEVER SEEN A TRACTOR LIKE THIS.
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THANKS, GREG AND TOM. THIS WEEKE’S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTES GOES TO THE GOOD SAMARITAN EPISCOPAL CHURCH LOCATED IN SAUK CENTRE, MINNESOTA. IT’S A SPEICAL WEEKEND, AS THE CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING ITS 150TH ANNIVERSARY ON SUNDAY. CONGRATUATLATIONS AND OUR THANKS TO NANCY ANERSON FOR SENDING THAT IN.
TEASE
UP NEXT, FARMERS RUSHING TO BEAT MOTHER NATURE. WE HAVE PHOTOS NEXT.
FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL, IT WAS REALLY A RACE AGAINST MOTHER NATURE THIS WEEK, AS FARMERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PREPARED FOR THE WORST. THOSE HARVEST READY STALKS WOULD BE NO MATCH FOR FIERCE WINDS. TYRONE WAS BUSY TRYING TO HARVEST CORN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, IN CASE THEY WERE IN HURRICANE IRMA’S PATH. HE SAYS HARVEST HA BEEN PRETTY GOOD THIS YEAR, WITH YIELD SAYING IN THAT 160 TO 190 BUSHEL PER ACRE RANGE. AND ROSS BELL IS BUSY HARVESTING IN NORHTEAST ARKANSAS. HE SAYS BOTH CORN AND BEAN YIELDS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR, SHOWING ABOVE AVERAGE YIELDS ON THE COMBINE. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU’D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I’M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT AND SAFE WEEKEND, EVERYONE.
