This fall and winter, I was frequently asked, “Pete, when is the other shoe going to drop?”
This is a good question, as the used farm equipment market was on fire. Truth be told that’s actually my Norwegian understatedness at work. “On fire” doesn’t do the market justice. Here are a few examples:
- A Dec. 9 online farm retirement auction in Charleston, Ill., produced the highest auction prices ever on a tractor ($538,000), combine ($476,000) and planter ($346,000). These were new record prices by $123,000, $65,000 and $91,000, respectively.
- A 1992 John Deere 4960 with 4,056 hours sold for $97,000 on Dec. 4 at a farm auction in Payne, Ohio. It was the highest price on a 4960 in eight years.
- A 1999 Case IH 8940 with 4,330 hours sold for $97,000 during a Nov. 30 online auction in Ogden, Iowa. That beat the former record by $5,000, which was from nearly eight years ago.
I wrote this column on Dec. 10. Here are a few prices from just that day:
- A 2021 Kinze 3665 ASD Big Blue 16/31 planter, 1,000 acres, sold for $252,000 at an online auction in Roca, Neb. That’s the highest auction price on a Kinze planter by $122,000.
- A 2013 John Deere 1760NT 8R30 planter sold for $54,500 at a farm auction in Blair, Neb. That’s $500 more than the owner paid for it new.
- At the same Blair, Neb., auction, a John Deere 4640 tractor with 5,536 hours sold for $42,000. That’s the fourth-highest price on a 4640.
It is in our collective ag DNA to look for the other shoe to drop. Typically things get rolling and then crash lower. Not this time. Why not? Two reasons:
- The supply chain mess will not be “fixed” in 2022, which will adversely affect availability and pricing of new farm equipment.
- Farm equipment dealer used inventories are tight. Check out the tanking “supply” of used 175+ hp tractors in the graph at left. Just like the supply chain issue, tighter dealer used lots won’t be “fixed” in short order.
I think 2022 will continue to see strong buyer demand for used equipment in good condition. At least that’s the way this Norwegian sees it.
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