Market Watch with Austin Schroeder
October 24, 2025
Get Off Your Phone
One of the house rules that my wife likes to implement is staying off our phones when we are around each other and the kids. After all, we don’t necessarily want our kids’ memories to us be looking down at our mindlessly doom-scrolling hands. It is a rule that at times I need to abide by a little more, but I see the importance of being present. As we all know, President Trump is very active on social media. A number of times, that is where headlines within the markets are derived from, and that was no different this week. Whether it be terminating trade talks with Canada or telling cattle producers to lower their prices, the president’s phone was fairly active this week. Among all of his advisors, there are times he too needs someone one telling him to get off the phone.
orn futures saw some back and forth trade this week as December managed to sneak out with a ¾ cent gain since last Friday. The Export Inspections report showed 1.317 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 10/16, up 8.9% from last week and well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 60.61% larger from last year at 9.338 MMT. Weekly EIA data is also being released, with ethanol production reported up another 38,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 17 at 1.112 million barrels per day. Consumption and exports continue to remain solid, as stocks of ethanol saw another draw of 709,000 barrels at 21.919 million barrels.
The wheat complex finally put together some higher movement this week, as bears sems to relinquish some control. December MPLS spring wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, as the Chicago contract was in line, 8 ¾ cents higher. December KC HRW futures led the way with a dime high trade. News was light this week with the government shutdown. USDA offices were closed for the most part, as the government shutdown continued. We are still getting bits and pieces of ‘essential’ data. Export Inspections were at 480,614 MT, which was 77.63% above last year and a 7.39% increase from last week. In the first 4 1/2 months of the marketing year shipments are 20.35% above last year at 11.193 MMT.
Soybeans saw another round of buying this week, as November was up 22 1/4 cents. The trade talk this week focused on President Trump expecting to meet with China’s Xi this coming Thursday. December soybean meal was up $13.10/ton (4.66%) on the week, as bean oil was 86 points (1.68%) lower. Of the few USDA reports released this week, FGIS data showed soybean exports improving 44.9% from the week prior to 1.475 MMT in the week of 10/16. That was still 42.9% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 30.9% below last year at 5.537 MMT.
Live cattle were under pressure this week, as December was down $7.90 (3.27%), led by Friday’s limit losses. The government was still in shutdown mode this week but the White House was active. President Trump posted on Wednesday telling cattle ranches to lower prices, and then raised the tariff rate quota in Argentina beef imports by 4x to 80,000 MT on Thursday. There was also talk that the Mexican ag minister was headed to D.C. next week to talk over the suspension of cattle imports by the US. Cash trade slipped back this week, down $2-3 to $238-239 across the country. Feeders were the leaders with a couple days of limit losses, taking the November weekly change to $19.50 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $9.43 week/week to $367.08. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some continued recovery this week. Choice was $8.99/cwt higher (2.5%) this week to $375.76. Select was up $7.70 (2.2%) at $357.97 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 573,000 head by the USDA. That was a 6,000 head increase from last week and 52,186 head below the same week last year.
Hogs saw some more modest pressure this week, with December down another 47 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.96 this week at $93.63 as of October 22. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout leveled off this week, up 4 cents this week to $102.74/cwt. The loin and ham primals were the only reported lower. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.584 million head this week according to USDA. That was 4,000 head above last week and 7,299 head shy of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures steadied off this week, down just 8 points. General support came from a bounce back in the crude oil market this week to above the $61/barrel level. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, though it is likely not from China. President Trump and China’s President Xi are expected to meet later next week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown still not concluded and in its fourth week, things will likely be quiet again next week. Monday will again not see the release of the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. EIA data is expected out on Wednesday, per normal. We will also get a Fed rate announcement on Wednesday. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended due to the shutdown. Thursday is the expiration of October feeder cattle futures and options, with first notice day for November soybeans on Friday, as well as the last trade day for October live cattle futures.
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