Market Commentary for 11/3/23
Corn closed the week 3 cents lower than the week prior. In 65 of the last 67 trading sessions December corn closed between $4.70 and $5.00. One positive, corn did not make a new low for the calendar year.
Beans, however, had a great finish to the week by breaking out to the high side to levels not traded since mid-September. This might be attributed to the weather conditions in Brazil causing some traders concern.
The Mato Grasso region in the north, where nearly 25% of Brazil’s beans are raised, has been hot and dry. Plus, in the south, where another 25% of Brazil’s beans are grown, it has been very wet and delayed planting. However, favorable weather is forecasted next week that could allow for some planting advancement. Regardless, the southern areas still have until late November before delays would cause yields to be compromised and the north is still early in the growing cycle.
Market Action – Results for Buying Puts for Price Protection
I previously wrote that in late December of 2022 I sold 25% of my expected 2023 bean production at $14.04 with a November 2023 futures contract sale.
At the same time, I also bought $13.80 November puts, which is the right to sell beans for a specific value at a later date, for 78 cents on my remaining 75% of production. To get the true hedge value protection of the trade, the 78-cent put cost must be subtracted from the $13.80 strike price to get the actual $13.02 floor protection value.
Combined, these trades provided a guaranteed $13.25 futures price floor on my 2023 beans if there was a major market downturn. They also gave me unlimited upside potential, minus the cost of the puts, if the market rallied. When beans were trading down to $11.30 in late May, I was glad I had downside protection. However, two months later when beans were trading $14, I thought the cost of the puts may have been a waste. Regardless, having upside potential was always the goal for buying the puts instead of outright selling because no weather is unpredictable.
What I Did Next – Rolled My Put Price Down
On Sept. 28, when November beans were trading at $13, I sold my $13.80 puts for 90 cents. I then bought November $12.80 puts for 20 cents to keep catastrophic downside protection in place for another month.
What Does This Mean?
My net cost to own floor protection was reduced from 78 cents to 8 cents. My floor protection was reduced from $13.02 to $12.72. Following are the calculations:
Bought $13.80 put: paid 78 cents
Sold $13.80 put: collected 90 cents
Net Profit: 12 cents
Bought $12.80 put: paid 20 cents
Less 12 cent profit from trade above
Net Cost: 8 cents
Why Did You Do This?
Historically beans tend to rally from early October to late October. So, I basically reduced my floor cost, betting on another seasonal rally. While the seasonals suggested upside potential I feared that yields could be better than expected and it could drive the price of beans much lower during harvest.
What Happened?
The market stayed range bound and finish at $12.97 when the options expired on Oct. 27. Those $12.80 puts I owned for 8 cents expired worthless and my floor protection was gone.
What If You Had Kept The $13.80 Puts?
They would have been worth 83 cents at expiration, and I would have made a 5-cent profit. I paid 78 cents to buy them, and I could have sold them for 83 cents. Instead, I bet on a seasonal trade that did not happen and had a small 8-cent lost.
Why Didn’t You Roll Down the Puts in May When Prices Hit $11.30?
I could have rolled the $13.80 puts down to $12.80 puts, collected a net 10 cents on the trade, AND kept a floor price. This would have meant 75% of my beans were protected at $12.90 instead of $13.02.
I didn’t do this, because at the time bean prices were $2 per bushel below my floor protection price, old crop corn prices had just dropped from $6.50 to $5.50, and I didn’t have any of my 2022 corn sold. Because I was not confident bean prices would rally back $2 per bushel, I couldn’t justify rolling my put floor position lower and potentially taking 12 cents per bushel less for my soybeans betting on a late summer rally.
Fortunately, beans AND corn rallied in June, and I sold the rest of my old crop corn for 70 cents higher than late May prices. This meant my new crop beans missed out a little, but since I, like most farmers, grow substantially more corn bushels than beans, it still feels like a win.
Looking Forward
With no more options in place, I now have only 25% of my beans sold at the equivalent of $13.80 against the November ($14.04 sale price minus the 8-cent put loss).
I am now looking for an opportunity to sell my remaining 75% of 2023 beans.
Next week I will discuss what I did with the sales against the November futures contract.
If you would like to know more about this type of information or your local markets for corn and soybeans, reach out to me at jon@superiorfeed.com.
Want to read more by Jon Scheve? Check out recent articles:
Could Soybeans Rally While Corn Slides At the Same Time?
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Corn May Be Stuck Trading Sideways, But Beans Could Have Some Upside Potential
Are The Lows In For Corn? Maybe Not Yet
Which Crop Should You Store If You Don’t Have Enough Storage?
