Farm Journal's
Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor
A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) will provide an updated 2024 net farm income forecast on Thursday. Economists say the net farm income picture would look even worse it weren’t for improved livestock prices.
U.S. corn prices hit a four-year low as the prospect for record corn and soybean crops takes shape in the field. The eroding outlook also appeared in the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
The Federal Reserve has four more chances this calendar year to cut interest rates. Since July 2023, the system has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.
USDA’s June Acreage report tends to be a major market mover. Ahead of the report, we asked economists to weigh in on where think the acreage numbers could land in the report set to be released June 28.
The farm bill finally saw some movement in Washington last month, but the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found most economists don’t think it will be passed this year, with some even saying it could be as late as 2026.
The May Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found even with improved commodity prices over the past month, ag economists’ views on the net farm income picture slightly eroded, falling to $110.4 billion in May.
There’s an immense amount of pressure riding on this year’s crop production picture, and with a margin squeeze setting in across farms, economists think it could accelerate consolidation in the row-crop industry.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a gauge of economists’ views on the ag economy. While outlooks have grown weaker, it’s the erosion in the future outlook that is sprouting fresh concerns.
The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor projects a major drop in net farm income this year. Economists are also growing more pessimistic about the potential for interest rate cuts in 2024.
Ag economists have little doubt Brazil will remain the world’s top exporter of soybeans, but with potential safrinha corn production problems, economists aren’t confident Brazil can hang on to the top spot in corn.