Farm Journal's
Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor.
A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.
Political unrest, a healthy ag economy and the start of an election year. These are all reasons economists in the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor think it could 2025 before Congress passes a new farm bill.
As pork producers’ potential profits continue to erode this year, some economists say 2023 could be financially worse than 1998, which is unearthing concerns about contraction, restructuring and vertical integration.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor show economists expect USDA to make additional cuts to its yield estimates, but one economist thinks weather worries in South America could be an even bigger story than U.S. yields.
While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country’s biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.
![Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Ag Economy Outlook - Main Article Image - 09-2023 - WEB[34].jpg](https://assets.farmjournal.com/dims4/default/dcdb1c6/2147483647/strip/true/crop/3500x2338+0+81/resize/250x167!/format/webp/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffj-corp-pub.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Fs3fs-public%2F2023-09%2FAg%20Economists%20Monthly%20Monitor%20-%20Ag%20Economy%20Outlook%20-%20Main%20Article%20Image%20-%2009-2023%20-%20WEB%5B34%5D.jpg)
Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy.
Even with red flags with demand and the economy, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists continue to be impressed with the staying power of the U.S. ag economy, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole.
Grain prices continue to rally as Russia ramped up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. But agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.
The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.
The majority of ag economists don’t expect a farm bill to be written by the upcoming deadline, but a few think it could happen by the end of the year, according to the most recent Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a new survey of nearly 50 economists. Most ag economists agree the next 12 months could produce more financial pressure for agriculture, but their views vary depending on commodity.