Brazil
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
Soybeans bounced on Friday and were up Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says to go back and retest this week’s highs or move to new highs soybeans will need to see proof of China purchases.
Ted Seifried says the ag markets saw risk off selling across the commodity board and profit taking in the grains after the recent rally. But with the volatility in the soybean market is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc., says commodity wide selling is hitting the grain and livestock futures early Thursday and some of it is tied to uncertainty regarding the future of tariffs.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says most of the grain and oilseed complex saw general profit taking Tuesday after hitting overbought territory.
Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments thinks the China deal is nearly priced into the soybean market and so it will need confirmation of what “significant purchases” means before moving higher.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says soybeans made new highs for the move and January futures are closing in on $11, while March made fresh highs for the year.
Grain markets staged a rally on Monday and Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans led the charge on news over the weekend that the U.S. and China had reached a framework agreement that included “substantial purchases” of U.S. soybeans.
Live cattle are sharply lower with limit down moves in feeders under expanded limits on Monday morning. Brad Kooima says now the focus is on the possibility of the U.S. dropping the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports.
Arlan Suderman says the U.S. is strengthening ties with Argentina to counter China’s growing influence — a global strategy that’s leaving many U.S. farmers and ranchers feeling sidelined.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and feeder quickly pushed to limit down status with fear of the U.S. opening the border to Mexican feeder imports.
Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.
Kevin Marcus gives insights from U.S. to South America to China growing and harvest seasons.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying this week after bouncing off key support on the charts. The key is can the markets build on it next week?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.
Kevin Duling of KD Investors says soybeans saw some short covering and technical buying but got a fundamental push from rising Brazilian basis levels.
In its preliminary estimate, Conab forecast Brazil’s soybean acreage would increase 3.6% to 49.08 million hectares (121.2 million acres).
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $22 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388. Grains see pressure from China trade news.
Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial, says soybeans are back higher early Tuesday on light technical buying but awaiting details of the Trump administration’s farmer aid package.
DuWayne Bosse, with Bolt Marketing says he was surprised at how well the corn market is handling the harvest pressure that is ramping up across the Corn Belt.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans saw additional profit taking Thursday and pressure from harvest pressure and record soybean production estimates for Brazil.
U.S. corn growers and ethanol producers once enjoyed a level playing field with Brazil.
Brazil’s environmental authorities seized around 7,000 illegal head of cattle in the Amazon and issued fines to several ranchers and slaughterhouses.
President Trump is poised to impose some of the highest tariffs among trading partners on Brazil.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says corn opened lower but was trying to recover early on short covering, but also following the strength in the wheat market. Soybeans fell further on tariff concerns.
Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved increasing the percentage of ethanol mixed in gasoline.
Agriculture is an export dependent business. At peak uncertainty, the industry could go either way: Gain ground with new trade deals or take a big hit as exports further decline.