Brazil
Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with corn and soybean prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying.
Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer. With U.S. production down 3.9%, analysts point to Brazil’s feed capacity and rising imports as key drivers of this historic market shift.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the soybean market faded after hitting chart resistance but also seemed disappointed with the lack of confirmed China export business. The grain complex also saw report positioning.
The grain markets were mixed early Thursday squaring ahead of the USDA reports. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions.
While U.S. beef production fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, Brazil’s beef production surprisingly increased. Rabobank, for example, expected a decline, but now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent in Brazil.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.