Brazil
While U.S. beef production fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, Brazil’s beef production surprisingly increased. Rabobank, for example, expected a decline, but now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent in Brazil.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says some algorithm trades moved the grain market with year end position squaring but there was also spillover from macro markets like gold and silver.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says the grains saw a Santa Claus rally on technical buying as under light volume its easier to move a market. Hogs reacted to the bearish Hogs and Pigs Report.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says the next focus for the soybean market in 2026 will be South American weather and what does China do on long term soybean purchases.