China

The White House says China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, plus resume U.S. sorghum and hardwood log imports, clearing confusion over comments from Secretary Bessent.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the reaction in the soybean market following the announced trade framework between the U.S. and China provides important technical clues for future price direction.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.

After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.

Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says in response to the China deal the soybean market pushed into new highs for the move with January finally closing above the $11 mark.

Hear the latest on the government shutdown, the farm economy, including aid for farmers, and Thursday’s trade news with China.

Alan Bruger says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks with this deal.

In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 27 million metric tons of soybeans to China.