China

The first trading day of 2025 saw the U.S. dollar hit a two-year high, but the strength of the dollar in 2024 also had a major impact on commodity markets.

From a possible trade war to brewing discontent within the country, there are five significant trends poised to shape China in the coming year.

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.

Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.

Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.

Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border, in a move that would appear to violate a free-trade deal.

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.

Several U.S. agriculture drone service companies could soon have their wings clipped if a ban on technology from Chinese drone maker DJI becomes reality.

Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says grains are facing the headwind of returning strength in the U.S. dollar index and the lack of weather threats. Soybean oil losses are additionally pulling down soybeans.

Trump taps Howard Lutnick for Commerce Secretary, signaling tariff-heavy trade strategy. Lutnick has called the tariffs a negotiating tool that could be used to convince other countries to bring down their own levies or to force companies to move production to the U.S.