Market Analysis
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed was anticipated but is friendly for the ag markets.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says November soybeans are finally above the 50 day moving average for a number of reasons, including more talk of China business.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle market has just felt better the last week with cash finally bottoming and futures posting a higher weekly close.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says wheat led the grain complex lower after better rain forecasts for U.S. and Black Sea production areas, but all the grain markets ran into chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cash cattle market put in a low last week and futures were sharply higher so the market just feels better. Soybeans and corn may have put in seasonal lows but he cautions further upside may be capped by harvest pressure.
Corn and wheat ended higher for a third week, while soybeans have put in four weeks of higher closes. Alan Brugler thinks wheat might be trying to forge a low, but it might be too early to make that call on corn and soybeans.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says early cash has been steady at $181 in the South helping to push cattle futures. Row crops are extending gains post WASDE, while wheat adds weather premium.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans fell on a combination of factors including higher yield ideas in the USDA Report.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, expects cash cattle and futures to recover this week if the stock market can stablilize. Soybeans rebound on China business and South American weather, but corn fails.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk says grain markets scored reversals Friday on profit taking by fund traders after hitting key chart resistance. However, it was triggered by the bearish outside markets and caution ahead of the September WASDE Report.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says new crop corn and soybean charts are signaling the September WASDE might be bearish and confirm the large crop size.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says bearish outside markets spilled over to cause risk off selling in grain and livestock futures Friday, but grain markets says some profit taking and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says grains have had a good run on fund short covering and will need some new bullish news to keep going and get above chart resistance.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and wheat saw some profit taking after a nice rally, while soybeans powered back on export business and South American weather.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains are seeing near term support from global weather concerns and improving demand. Livestock end in the red with a poor technical close in cattle on lower cash.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are reacting to early cash which was lower but he says he is still looking for steady money. Grains take a breather, but he thinks that rally will continue with better demand and South American concerns.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says supply and demand factors are combining to push the market higher and he isn’t sure the rally is over yet.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grains are pricing in ideas that corn and soybean yields are not as big as feared. That’s what they found in their nationwide annual yield survey. However, South America’s crop size may also be declining. So what will that mean for the September WASDE and can grain prices continue to rally as a result?
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain are higher early Wednesday. The market has been pushed by fund short covering, lower yield ideas and better demand. However, upside may be limited especially as farmers sell on the rally. Livestock are mixed.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he was encouraged grains were all able to close higher and build on last week’s higher weekly closes. So was it all fund short covering?
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, shares what he’s looking for this week in the markets to prove last week’s higher closes in the grains wasn’t just a head fake or a bear trap.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says while the technical action in the grain markets was encouraging grains need to close higher again next week for confirmation. Cattle and hogs also closed higher Friday and for the week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says long term continuation charts for live cattle still look positive. Corn and soybeans could post higher weekly closes but he thinks it might be a bear trap.
Corn and soybeans rally Thursday putting in some weather premium but may have reached a value level which is uncovering strong end user demand.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybean may have dialed in the biggest yield and with hot dry weather trimming yield and demand picking up the markets could see more buying.
Cattle set back on lower early cash and cutouts, while hogs turn mixed after early gains tied to strong weekly exports.
Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading, says soybeans and corn fade flash export sales, also see First Notice Day liquidation. While wheat may be bottoming as quality issues develop in Hard Red Spring wheat.
Wheat sees short covering Wednesday and tries to rally with corn after key reversals Tuesday in both markets. Soybeans take a break on Midwest rains. However, Craig Turner with StoneX thinks long term lows are close.