Marketing-Communications
Seasonal patterns still apply in most years, so use spring rally to price
After the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Thursday, corn and soybeans took the lead story away from wheat. Ending stocks for wheat for 2017/18 have been lowered 25 million bushels, the report citing increased exports as the cause.
Wheat growers have had a rough go the last couple of years with low prices and the least amount of acres planted in nearly a century.
The CFTC has lodged some interesting allegations against Kraft Food that could have implications for market regulation. “If what the CFTC alleges is true, it kind of challenges the integrity of the entire market,” according to one source cited. “It’s normally the speculative players who get the bad reputation.”
Wheat fell to the lowest in almost three weeks in Chicago and corn declined amid speculation that tension between Ukraine and Russia will ease, improving the prospects for the Black Sea region’s grain exports.
Wheat rose for a second day in Chicago to the highest price in almost two weeks on concern freezing weather may damage crops in the U.S.
Wheat futures rose this morning amid expectations that demand for supplies from the U.S. and Europe will increase as exports from the Black Sea region slow.
Wheat prices were pulled lower with bearish news for corn in recent weeks, but a change is in the works, creating price optimism and profitable marketing opportunities.
Transactions will shift next week to the Chicago Board of Trade.
Monsanto Co. may face more complaints from farmers even as tests so far haven’t shown unapproved gene-altered wheat anywhere beyond the Oregon farm.
Wheat in Chicago fell the most in two weeks after Japan suspended imports from the U.S., where an unapproved, genetically modified strain was discovered in an Oregon field.
Wheat rose to the highest in almost five weeks on speculation that U.S. farmers will plant fewer acres with spring varieties due to cold weather.
Scarce stocks could send prices soaring or crashing just as they did in 2008 and 2009, when prices rose to record-highs only to crash following the Great Recession.
Even though stocks are declining, supply remains secure worldwide.
But small by-class adjustments are made to projected exports and stocks.
Despite the worst single-year drought ever in the Southern Plains, wheat producers there are hoping for, or perhaps even banking on, more rain.
The Kansas City Board of Trade’s December wheat contract prices have declined $1.94 to $7.05 since Aug. 29.
Between now and December 1, wheat prices may be anywhere between $7.50 and $11.
Some U.S. poultry producers could be turning to lower-quality feed wheat as corn prices spike and oil-rich Middle Eastern countries continue to build wheat socks.
The USDA released the December WASDE reports Friday and the market just yawned.
The time may be right for wheat to come to life. For many months, wheat stocks have been viewed as excessive. When any commodity with negative fundamentals can post and hold a near 50% rally, it gets my attention, as it should yours.
For a crop with the biggest carryover relative to use, wheat has showed a lot of life recently.
Egypt said on Sunday that its strategic stock of wheat is safe and covers four-month needs despite a Russian export ban.
Over the last several weeks, cotton prices have seen a decent run in prices. Ashley Arrington, founder of AgriAuthority, told AgDay host Clinton Griffiths cotton markets can be “dramatic at times, especially in relation to the July contract.”
China holds more than half of the world’s growing cotton stockpile, and it’s running out of storage space.
Cotton entered a bear market as improved prospects for crops in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, compounds the outlook for abundant world supplies.
China is hoarding a record amount of cotton, increasing the risk of a supply surge that would tip prices into a bear market.
Following the recent record-high cotton prices, demand for cotton has steadily decreased while output has increased.