Precipitation
There’s now a 60% chance La Niña will develop between June and August and an 85% chance it’s in effect by November 2024 to January 2025, according to NOAA.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought coverage is now at its lowest level since spring of 2020, but USDA’s topsoil moisture map shows it’s still extremely dry in areas of the west and too wet in the east.
Experts are watching global dynamics to understand the input market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S. Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.
Brazil is seeing a sudden shift in weather with heavy rains now forecasted over the next two weeks. While it will bring relief to drought areas, it could cause harvest delays and issues planting the safrinha corn crop.
According to the meteorologists at BAMwx, the upcoming month in Brazil could be comparable to this past August for U.S. soybeans.
The shift to El Nino brings several changes to the upcoming winter.
This recent sea of very warm water means cooler land temperatures surrounding the Gulf will be a long time arriving this fall. It even has an implication for Midwest farmers.
The National Drought Mitigation Center estimates 67% of corn and 60% of soybeans are still considered to be in drought, a slight improvement from last week when drought covered 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans.
Last week, 34% of the U.S. corn crop was covered in drought, and this week it jumped to 45%. The second crop conditions ratings of the season from USDA-NASS confirmed dryness is starting to deteriorate crop conditions.
After consecutive years of drought, some areas of Texas are now breaking records for the wettest May ever. With most of their crop left to plant, it’s forcing farmers to make some tough decisions and crop changes.