U.S. Department of Agriculture
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says he was a bit surprised by how aggressive USDA was in raising corn exports to 3.2 billion bu. which is a record.
China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.
USDA says anticipated trade aid could be announced the first week of December, but ag economists are split on whether payments would provide relief or worsen lingering risks such as high input costs and market distortions.
USDA Under Secretary Richard Fordyce says USDA’s new phase of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program expands eligibility, requires in-person enrollment and targets losses from the 2023 and 2024 weather disasters.
Grains futures saw sharp losses on Wednesday on profit taking according to Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. However, there were several other factors at play.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says the additional six cargoes of soybeans sold to China were part of the rumored business earlier in the week and have already been priced into the market.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says USDA only lowered national corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 which was a disappointment for the bulls.
Cattle market fundamentals remain unchanged while psychology shifts the market due to the President’s comments and industry interference.
The biggest surprise came from the agency cutting corn yield less than a bushel and loweing soybean exports by 50 million bushels.