Ukraine
Before the war, Ukrainian agriculture boomed. Farmers like me increased production across our country fivefold in about 20 years. And I just keep farming. That’s what I can control.
“For now, we don’t believe there’s going to be much in the effect in terms of fertilizer production from either country, though it would be a little silly to not consider it,” says Josh Linville from StoneX.
The conflict in Ukraine has been a focus for certain markets, such as wheat, since Russia first invaded the country nearly three years ago. This past week, President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the war would start “immediately.”
Farmer and philanthropist Howard Buffett held a fireside chat during the 2024 Top Producer Summit to share his experiences visiting the front line of Ukraine over the past two years.
Experts are watching global dynamics to understand the input market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S. Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.
A Russian missile strike on Thursday hit eastern Ukraine, now considered one of the deadliest since the war started. Russia also attacked grain storage in the Odesa region, damaging a grain silo near the Danube River.
Ukraine is a key player in global agriculture, and how these conflicts play out will have international impacts.
Grain prices continue to rally as Russia ramped up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. But agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.
A week ago, Jerry Gulke discussed how global events could affect agriculture. Now we know.
The grain markets posted some of their largest weekly gains ever this week.
From growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia to forecasts for hot and dry weather across the Midwest, grain prices have been on a volatile run. Analysts think the volatility could heat up again next week.
The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.
It didn’t start with the swing of an ax in the Amazon or by an explosion in Kiev. Both contributed, but the shifts in global grain flows is a multifaceted prism through which the future is continuing to evolve.
The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and suspending the deal, which lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea. Instead, it occurred over a failure to ease rules for food and fertilizer exports.
Last week was full of both bullish and bearish news for the wheat market. Arlan Suderman of Stone X Group says there are still several things that could spark momentum in the wheat market.
The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, one day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.
Kansas typically accounts for 25% of the nation’s winter wheat production, but ongoing drought is weighing on overall crop conditions. Farmers are now facing the possibility of increased abandonment this year.
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again as Ukrainian officials say Russia is taking action to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative.
The Kremlin said the outlook for the landmark U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal was not great as promises to remove obstacles to Russian exports of agricultural and fertilizer exports had not been fulfilled.
As Americans, we are free to debate the budgets, the policies, the processes and purpose of our role in this conflict. I can’t, however, ignore the humanity paying the cost.
Russia badly needs to replace expended and outdated Soviet arms while China needs Russian energy. That is compelling math. This is bad news not just for the heroic people of Ukraine, but Europe and the US.
“When Ukraine fails, in terms of their ability to produce agricultural products, the world becomes less safe,” says Howard Buffett, global philanthropist and Illinois farmer.
Russia is now saying it will only extend its Black Sea grain deal if sanctions are lifted on its own agricultural products. The deal, which was brokered last year, allowed for safe passage of Ukrainian ag products.
A year after Russia invaded Ukraine farmers continue to see reduced crop production and exports. Farming has been difficult in the middle of a war, but farmers such as Nick Gordiichuk have persevered.
A year ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine injected uncertainty about global grain supplies into the market. Today, initial concerns have been squashed by the reality of record exports from the Black Sea Region.
For Ukrainians, the introduction of Starlink has been essential. As Russian barrages destroy cell towers and blow up landlines, satellite internet connection is not just an option, but it’s now a lifeline.
The new year brings fresh market action, but volatility continues to be the main theme to enter the new year. As farmers look ahead, analysts say there are some keys lessons to keep in mind from 2022.