USDA Reports
There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.
One idea that has gained traction is USDA surveys may not be as accurate as current technology, especially satellite imagery, especially since the number of satellites has ballooned and the price has dropped.
USDA’s first farmer survey-based yield estimate offered few surprises, but analysts warn the estimates might already be out of date due to rain that fell after Aug. 1. USDA also made more cuts to demand.
Jon Scheve discusses the likelihood of USDA changing the average corn yield in Friday’s WASDE report based on crop condition observations, the drought monitor, high-tech tools and social media.
On March 29, USDA will release its annual Prospective Plantings report. How will acres shake out this year?
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Group, and DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, debate USDA’s WASDE numbers.
After the June report, traders prepared for a “new” trading environment with “burdensome” corn supplies and “pipeline” soybean supplies. Then came the anticlimactic July report.
The next opportunity for USDA to adjust its corn yield forecast is next week during the July WASDE report. Currently, USDA has penciled in a 181.5 bu. per acre national yield, but analysts think it may be too optimistic.
Farmers across the Texas High Plains received a deluge of rainfall right at planting, and while the moisture was needed, the sudden switch prevented some farmers from planting their intended cotton acres this year.
USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report, including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations.