Wheat
China’s exports to Russia reached a record high in April, amounting to $9.6 billion.
Last week was full of both bullish and bearish news for the wheat market. Arlan Suderman of Stone X Group says there are still several things that could spark momentum in the wheat market.
The 2023 Wheat Quality Council’s Wheat Tour across Kansas found low yields and higher abandonment than what USDA currently has penciled in with one economist on tour warning abandonment could climb even higher.
Farmers in the Southern Plains are finally starting to see much-needed moisture hit their fields. It may be too late for winter wheat, but it’s a hopeful sign for those needing the rain to even plant summer crops.
True armyworm (not to be confused with fall armyworm) is moving into Midwest wheat and corn crops now. Many are newcomers from the South, but homegrown populations are also concerning in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.
A late April blast could bring sub-freezing temperatures as far south as northern Texas, sparking growing concerns about the potential damage to winter wheat.
Kansas typically accounts for 25% of the nation’s winter wheat production, but ongoing drought is weighing on overall crop conditions. Farmers are now facing the possibility of increased abandonment this year.
From the potential for more cold weather later this week to additional moisture increasing chances for flooding in the upper Midwest, the forecast for the remainder of April could hold a few more surprises.
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again as Ukrainian officials say Russia is taking action to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative.
As the market balances its focus between increased planting progress and the reality of saturated soils and more chances of rain and snow in the northern tier of states, commodity prices could sway planting decisions.