Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

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July 2026 · Latest report

July Report at a Glance

The July panel shows improving short-term sentiment, but little relief on the cost side. The Ag Economy Index rebounded to 61 from June's 50, while nearly seven in 10 economists expect 2027 input prices to remain flat or elevated and the same share expect operating-loan rates to move higher. As producers look toward 2027, debt repayment and credit stress are emerging as the indicators to watch.

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Outlook

"Better sentiment, unmoved costs."

Fifty-six percent say the ag economy is better off than a month ago, but input and borrowing costs remain stubborn. The panel sees some improvement in conditions without a meaningful easing of the pressure facing 2027 budgets.

Ag Economy Index

the July reading, up 11 points from June

The index rebounded from 50 on a much stronger month-over-month read.

2027 Input Costs

69%

expect input prices to stay flat or elevated

Another 19% expect prices to keep climbing, while none foresee significant relief.

Farmland Values

13%

say a farmland correction is beginning

A 56% majority expects values to plateau without declining, while another 31% expect current values to hold.

Debt stress is the indicator to watch. Economists are increasingly focused on loan delinquencies, repayment behavior and farm operating debt as the clearest signals of whether financial pressure is building.

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Insights & analysis

News Coverage

Taxes and Finance

The Ag Economy Is Healthy, And That’s One Reason Economists Think It Could Be 2025 Before We See A New Farm Bill

Political unrest, a healthy ag economy and the start of an election year. These are all reasons economists in the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor think it could 2025 before Congress passes a new farm bill.

October 30, 2023 08:39 AM

Tyne Morgan

Pork

Is More Vertical Integration, Consolidation Now Ahead? Why 2023 Could Change the Entire Pork Industry

As pork producers’ potential profits continue to erode this year, some economists say 2023 could be financially worse than 1998, which is unearthing concerns about contraction, restructuring and vertical integration.

October 17, 2023 09:18 AM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Average Yields - 09-2023

Crop Production

Is USDA Set to Make More Cuts to U.S. Yield? One Economist Thinks South American Weather Worries are the Bigger Story Now

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor show economists expect USDA to make additional cuts to its yield estimates, but one economist thinks weather worries in South America could be an even bigger story than U.S. yields.

October 11, 2023 03:06 PM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Recession Chart - 09-2023 - WEB.jpg

Taxes and Finance

Is A Recession Imminent? Here Are The Red Flags Ag Economists Are Now Watching

While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country’s biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.

October 05, 2023 09:37 AM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Ag Economy Outlook - Main Article Image - 09-2023 - WEB[34].jpg

Taxes and Finance

The One Factor That Could Make Or Break the Farm Economy Over the Next 12 Months

Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy.

September 27, 2023 03:13 PM

Tyne Morgan

Report Archive

View every Ag Economists Monthly Monitor published since January 2025.

Latest report

June 2026

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About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

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