Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor

A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.

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June 2026 · Latest report

June Report at a Glance

The June panel reads as a holding pattern with a hard floor. Not one economist expects crop agriculture to reach broadly profitable margins within 12 months, and half say it will take three to five years. The Ag Economy Index slipped to 50 — down from 61 in May — as a new threat, New World screwworm, moved onto the cattle radar.

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Outlook

"A holding pattern — with no quick exit."

Not one economist expects crop agriculture to return to broadly profitable margins within 12 months. Equal shares call conditions better and worse than a month ago, while 63% still see the economy worse than a year ago.

Ag Economy Index

the June reading, down 11 points from May

Slipped from 61 as the year-over-year read fell sharply.

Road back to profit

50%

say profitable margins are 3 to 5 years away

Just 19% expect a return within 1–2 years; none within 12 months.

2026 Acreage

60%

say producers planted too many corn & soybean acres

Of ~180 million acres; the rest call it "about right" — none said too few.

Half the panel expects a moderate hit to the cattle industry if New World screwworm spreads — and two-thirds would reopen the Mexican cattle border only with enhanced protocols.

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Insights & analysis

News Coverage

Pork

Is More Vertical Integration, Consolidation Now Ahead? Why 2023 Could Change the Entire Pork Industry

As pork producers’ potential profits continue to erode this year, some economists say 2023 could be financially worse than 1998, which is unearthing concerns about contraction, restructuring and vertical integration.

October 17, 2023 09:18 AM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Average Yields - 09-2023

Crop Production

Is USDA Set to Make More Cuts to U.S. Yield? One Economist Thinks South American Weather Worries are the Bigger Story Now

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor show economists expect USDA to make additional cuts to its yield estimates, but one economist thinks weather worries in South America could be an even bigger story than U.S. yields.

October 11, 2023 03:06 PM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Recession Chart - 09-2023 - WEB.jpg

Taxes and Finance

Is A Recession Imminent? Here Are The Red Flags Ag Economists Are Now Watching

While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country’s biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.

October 05, 2023 09:37 AM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Ag Economy Outlook - Main Article Image - 09-2023 - WEB[34].jpg

Taxes and Finance

The One Factor That Could Make Or Break the Farm Economy Over the Next 12 Months

Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy.

September 27, 2023 03:13 PM

Tyne Morgan

Ag Economists Monthly Monitor - Ag Economy Outlook - Main Article Image - 08-2023 - WEB.jpg

Taxes and Finance

Ag Economists Turn More Bullish On Soybean Prices, Corn Prices Are a Big Red Flag

Even with red flags with demand and the economy, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists continue to be impressed with the staying power of the U.S. ag economy, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole.

August 31, 2023 09:56 AM

Tyne Morgan

Report Archive

View every Ag Economists Monthly Monitor published since January 2025.

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June 2026

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About the Ag Economist Monthly Monitor

The Ag Economists Monthly Monitor is administered by Farm Journal and published on AgWeb. Each survey is administered to a vetted list of agricultural economists from across the United States.

Three of those questions repeat every survey, so changes can be tracked over time: current conditions vs. the prior month, current conditions vs. a year ago and the panel's outlook for the next twelve months. The trend chart plots those three categories. The composite sentiment index is a rebase of the four response shares to a single 0–100 number.

Responses are anonymous. Economists give the unvarnished view they cannot always offer with their name attached, and the panel composition is broad enough to cover crop, livestock, policy and ag finance perspectives. Reporting and analysis are produced by the AgWeb editorial team and overviews are aired on AgDay, AgriTalk and U.S. Farm Report.

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