Market Analysis
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some routine profit taking Thursday and early Friday despite some strong cash trade but the market feels heavy. Grains are rallying on weather or is it technical?
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says corn took a break after a three-day rally running into chart resistance in the December contract around $4.25.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn tried to move higher early Thursday but the December contract is running into chart resistance with the 20-day moving average at $4.25. Can weather help the market get above this level?
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says corn and to some degree soybeans, were adding weather premium as some heat comes is predicted for much of the Corn Belt in the extended forecasts. However, talk of China business also stirred up the trade.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says corn is extending gains for a third day still seeing short covering. However, the corn and soybeans markets are adding some weather premium with extended forecasts looking hotter in the 11-15 day time period.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn was able to build on Monday’s key reversals and close higher for a second day. However, without a weather problem what is the likelihood the market can sustain a rally?
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says corn and soybeans are seeing some pressure from weather and Monday’s strong crop ratings. Cattle recover with their discount to cash.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says old and new crop corn hit fresh contract lows again Sunday night but was able to divorce itself from the rest of the ag markets due to several factors. Meanwhile, soybeans and wheat were lower trading tariff and sanction news.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some routine profit taking after hitting all-time and record highs again on Friday. Corn is seeing short covering off fresh contract lows but can it hold any gains?
Dave Chatterton, with Strategic Farm Marketing, says old and new crop corn both made new contract lows as the market faded the friendly ending stocks numbers in the July WASDE. He says the market was looking ahead with ideas of higher yields in future reports.
Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Grains see pressure from weather and the risk off outside market influences tied to the proposed tariff increases on Canada to 35% by Aug. 1
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the bounce in the grain markets was mostly short covering heading into Friday’s WASDE Report. However, the market may not trade the report numbers long before it turns it attention back to weather.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says corn opened lower but was trying to recover early on short covering, but also following the strength in the wheat market. Soybeans fell further on tariff concerns.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says corn finally saw a light short covering bounce after making new contract lows again early Wednesday in both old and new crop contacts.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc. says grains continue to see non-commercial selling as the markets are becoming more comfortable about ample supplies. However, one factor not being talked about is demand is starting to fall.
Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer, says grains saw another ugly day with funds selling across the complex.
Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension Crops Economist, says weather and improved crop ratings and benign weather are weighing on the corn and soybean markets. However, tariff uncertainty is also negative for prices.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says funds sold aggressively and erased almost all of last weeks gains, as they came back from the holiday and saw no threat in the weather forecast.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futuresare showing resilience early Monday due to better than expected cash trade. However, grains are seeing heavy selling pressure.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets turned this week, not on trade news, but rather on less talked about factors.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans saw follow through technical buying and short covering heading into a three day holiday but were also trading hopes for a positive trade announcement on China from President Trump.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally. Grains are also higher on hopes of an announced deal with China.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was a combination of short covering and technical buying heading into a long holiday weekend but the announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam also provided a spark.
Allison Thompson withThe Money Farm says some of recovery in corn is a technical bounce off of new contract lows in both old and new crop contracts on Tuesday. She thinks the corn market has also been getting ahead of itself and is too bearish on yield.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn made new contract lows again as funds continue to sell with no major weather threat to the crop and improved crop ratings. But how low will prices go?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures had a gap lower opening this morning on news from USDA of a phased re-opening of the border to Mexican cattle starting July 7.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the June 30 reports have traditionally produced some fireworks, especially as they coincide with the end of the month and quarter which also triggers some portfolio re-balancing by the funds, but that didn’t happen Monday.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, chalks the recovery up to short covering heading into the weekend and position squaring ahead of Monday’s USDA reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says some in the market attributed the recovery to short covering but he thinks a some significant trade developments also played a role, as well as the upcoming USDA reports.
Historically, the corn market has been well over $5 with ending stocks this tight, says Darren Frye with Water Street Advisory, Inc. Will higher-than-expected corn inventory show up in USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report?