Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Inflation adjusted cost of production for corn has been consistently high since 2012
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says grain futures all ended slightly higher Thursday with end of month positioning and profit taking.
With $8 cash soybean bids in the Dakotas and Minnesota, and no bids for fall in a few markets, farmers might need to break the norm and store soybeans.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says the grain markets saw selling pressure from a stronger dollar and some liquidation ahead of first notice day on Friday and on end of the month liquidation.
Mark Knight of Farmers Keeper Financial says corn is drifting lower with some end of month profit taking and after having digested the lower yield estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour.
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures says corn has consolidated the last two sessions after hitting chart resistance at $4.17 and may wait for combine results before taking out that level.
The Trump Administration outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says corn is drifting Tuesday with some consolidation after hitting chart resistance on Monday and with liquidation ahead of first notice day on Friday and the end of the month.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans sank on profit taking and could see further liquidation going into first notice day and end of the month.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.
Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre says corn and soybeans posted higher weekly closes and should be able to build on that next week with the push from the lower yield and production estimates from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle fundamentals look supportive through fourth quarter, while corn and soybeans are running into chart resistance.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he was as surprised with USDA’s 188.8 bushel per corn acre yield as anyone, but their demand projections were even more surprising.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn December corn closed above the $4 level on Friday and was nearly steady for the week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the big losses in the cattle market on Thursday were tied to concerns ahead of USDA’s New World screwworm (NWS) announcement. Grains are bouncing on value and technical buying.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says he’s been impressed with how well the corn market has digested Tuesday’s bearish yield and production news.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says fund or managed money traders have stepped back in as the market is coming back to the reality that the grain fundamentals are bearish.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says soybeans were higher still digesting the positive news from the WASDE report and pulled corn higher. While he thinks this is bottoming action in the soybeans but what about corn?
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn is following the soybean market early Wednesday after USDA shocked the market with a record 188.8 bu. yield and 2 million more harvested acres. So did the report bottom the markets?
Brian Splitt with AgMarket.Net says new crop corn fell to contract lows after the August WASDE in reaction to USDA’s eye-popping 188.8 bushel per acre corn yield. However, soybeans rallied with ending stocks falling under 300 million bushels.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing says the grain markets were lower on China disappointment. Lean hogs continue to be supported by lower slaughter figures which could be a tailwind into 4Q.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans led the rally with nearly 24-cent gains in November on hopes for China export business. But the market may have gotten ahead of itself.
The world’s first ethanol to jet fuel production facility expects to begin production in September
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were signs in the cattle market prior to Friday’s sell-off indicating the market might be getting toppy. However, does the market negate the reversals like it has in the past?
Grain markets failed to extend Thursday’s gains after hitting chart resistance and fear of record yields in the Aug. 12 WASDE. However, Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors, says the market may have already priced in the biggest yields.
New crop corn closed lower for the week and made new contract lows but there was at least one silver lining in the technical action according to Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle saw some early profit taking pressure after contract and record highs again Thursday. However, the cattle futures have been resilient and every break seems to get bought, which is a good sign of a bull market.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains markets all closed higher on Thursday as they were oversold and due for a corrective bounce.
September will bring another funding cliff for USDA and the rest of the federal government.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says corn made contract lows again Wednesday as funds continue to sell on record yield estimates from private firms. However, the pressure is about more than just yield.