Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the grains markets started the day session higher with weekly exports strong except for old crop wheat. However, the market turned mixed with positioning ahead of a three day holiday and watching weather.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says several factors combined to cause the commodity wide buying on Wednesday.
Biofuels producer LanzaJet voiced concerns that potential Trump administration tariffs on Brazilian ethanol could significantly increase the cost of domestically produced sustainable avian fuel (SAF).
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the profit taking in the grain markets seems to be fading as the focus shifts to weather and China trade optimism.
Farmdoc daily reports that Brazil’s rapid expansion of corn-based ethanol production is transforming the country’s domestic corn market, sharply boosting internal consumption and potentially curbing future exports.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says grain markets continue to see profit taking after the recent relief rally pushed old crop corn, soybeans and wheat up into technical resistance on the charts.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says selling continues in much of the grain complex early Tuesday on profit taking as corn, soybeans and wheat contracts have all run into technical resistance.
The disaster aid framework is expected to be more farmer friendly versus the bewildering approach taken by the Biden administration.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says grains see a healthy correction on profit taking after hitting resistance. Cattle continue to recover with the S&P but for how long?
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the April WASDE confirmed the tighter balance sheets he had been expecting for several reports but that’s just the start of the bullish news.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says the way the markets shook off the escalating trade war with China was impressive but it will take several factors converging to keep the momentum going.
Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are calling on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to broaden USDA’s response to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says the ag markets have handled the escalation of the trade war with China remarkably well this week.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says corn and soybeans ended higher with lower ending stocks in the WASDE as corn fell below the 1.5 billion bu. mark.
Keystone Pipeline’s owner, South Bow Corp., has declared force majeure on scheduled crude oil shipments following a spill in North Dakota.
Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are trading lower Thursday morning with the retreat in the stock market. Grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE, but he doesn’t expect any market moving news from the report.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains are shaking off the news of an escalation of the trade war with China as they announced overnight they would be placing an additional 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, including ag.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that Japan will take priority in the administration’s upcoming trade negotiations, underscoring its strategic importance as both a military ally and major economic partner.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says while the tariff news was a bit more subdued Tuesday the markets are still watching tariff headlines and that is impacting money flow in and out of the financial sector as well as the commodities.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, says it could just be an oversold bounce as the equity markets have reached bear market territory and that stabilization is helping to firm up the grain and especially the livestock futures.
More than 50 countries have reached out to the Trump administration to open negotiations following the sweeping new tariffs.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains rebound as the market has absorbed much of the tariff news. Meanwhile, livestock saw follow through selling and triple digit losses.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says after a lower start the ag markets reversed with the stock market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says one of the markets that was able to cut through the tariff noise and end higher for the week was corn.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says soybeans, livestock and outside markets all had a negative response to China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of an additional 34%. But why was corn up for the week?
The energy market are under pressure from a perfect storm of supply increases, economic anxiety, and evolving geopolitical shifts.