Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
The Department of Energy (DOE) released its SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework, outlining strategies to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.
There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target, which means there’s potential for more market volatility in the next six weeks. On the demand side, questions remain as well.
Don Roose U.S. Commodities says grains were under pressure on technical selling, a lack of bullish news and the higher dollar. March soybeans made new contract lows with the lower soybean oil, favorable weather in Brazil and tariff fears.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are being led by the feeders and the cash market which is on fire out in the country. Grains are sliding early despite solid export business.
Brazil and China signed 37 deals covering agriculture, tech cooperation, trade and investments, infrastructure, industry, energy and mining, among other areas.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and wheat held risk premium tied to the escalating conflict in the Black Sea and despite a higher dollar.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says grains are facing the headwind of returning strength in the U.S. dollar index and the lack of weather threats. Soybean oil losses are additionally pulling down soybeans.
The emphasis on domestic agriculture reflects a broader trend in Mexican policy that could challenge existing trade agreements and alter the dynamics of agricultural exports between the two countries.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says wheat was up for a third day continuing to see short covering by managed money traders and adding war premium. However, corn could not follow with soybeans as an anchor.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says wheat is higher for a third day seeing short covering and adding risk premium with tension escalating in the Black Sea and threats by Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Robin Niblett stresses the necessity of managing this new cold war carefully to prevent it from escalating into a hot conflict, a scenario that would have devastating global consequences.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says wheat led the rally in the grains initially on a weaker dollar and adding geopolitical premium.
Includes $24 billion for USDA and $40 billion for FEMA.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle have held chart support so far even with lower cash and cutouts but feeders are the real leaders as funds continue to buy. Grains find strength on wheat’s lead and with a lower dollar.
Morgan Stanley downgraded China to slight “underweight” from “equal weight” in emerging markets, with analysts noting efforts to revive the economy and a Republican sweep of Congress and the White House could significantly impact markets.
North Dakota regulators on Friday approved Summit Carbon Solutions’ application for a permit to run a section of its carbon dioxide pipeline through the state and store the captured greenhouse gas underground.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains held technical support areas on Friday and saw corrective buying. She thinks the recovery can continue after Thanksgiving.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Koomia Varilek, says cattle try to recover after a lower day Thursday following lower cash and cutouts. Grains are also trying to recover with some corrective buying.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the risk off commodity wide selling was tied to new highs for the year in the dollar index and renewed fears about tariffs and a trade war.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says grain markets are trading lower for a 4th day as technical and risk off selling accelerates and a higher dollar adds pressure.
Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors says the weakness in grains is coinciding with the strength in the dollar in what he calls the “Trump Effect”.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called for Canada to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. unless Mexico aligns with North American partners on tariffs for Chinese imports.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says pressure in grains is coming from a higher dollar, lower crude oil, Trump’s political appointments and weather.
While some atmospheric factors have displayed La Niña-like signals, ENSO-neutral conditions persist, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains saw profit taking and technical selling across the complex and also reacted to the strength in the dollar.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn and soybeans are seeing technical selling after failing at chart resistance again on Monday.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says pressure in the grains came from a lack of news or fresh demand, farmer selling and bearish outside markets like lower crude oil and a higher dollar.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are consolidating and the live cattle charts look horrible after Friday’s poor technical action. Soybeans try to extend gains after a higher day Friday and USDA’s 1.4 bushel per acre yield cut.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the election might have brought about a paradigm shift in the approach to agricultural policies.
Alan Brugler, A and N Economics says to keep corn and soybean prices moving higher the U.S. will need to see continued demand through the end of the year, which may be difficult with the fear of tariffs.