Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says grains started off lower with soybeans seeing double digit gains on the possibility of increased tariffs and a trade war with China, then bounced off the lows.
U.S. agricultural exports totaled $13.13 billion in September against imports of $17.39 billion, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of $4.26 billion.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing says the grain markets were supported by strong demand and the lower dollar but also positioning ahead of the election, FOMC decision and WASDE.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says grains and livestock markets are positioning ahead of the election, FOMC announcement and the WASDE on Friday.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, though Malanga signals future economic stability may be threatened by conflicting survey data, recent steepening of the yield curve, and a federal deficit near 7% of GDP.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says strong demand continues to support corn and soybeans but it hasn’t been enough to push prices above chart resistance.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains are seeing support from strong demand and more export business. Cattle consolidate with election uncertainty, while hogs rebound from early weakness in all but the December contract to make new highs.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as harvest wraps up it is a good time to review the year’s markets.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says corn and soybeans were supported by strong demand initially but ended off highs running into chart resistance and on election jitters. After another volatile day in cattle is the market topping?
Darin Newsom, Sr. Market Analyst with Barchart says some of the early support in the grain markets Friday morning is coming from strong export demand.
Joe Santos, Director of the Ness School of Management and Economics at SDSU, says, “Interest rates if they remain relatively high compared to history I think that will continue to tighten economic performance in general including agricultural performance.”
Agriculture powerhouse Brazil has an abundance of cheap crops to make biofuels, providing the nation a leg up on competitors including the United States.
SovEcon further lowered its 2024-25 grain export estimates, citing new restrictions prohibiting sales of Russian grain by foreign third parties to sovereign buyers at tenders.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw a nice short covering bounce on the heels of a rally in soybean oil and more flash export sales to China and unknown.
Canadian renewable fuels producers are facing lower returns on new facilities due to a slump in British Columbia’s low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit market, a trend expected to persist amid a flood of imports from the United States.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says wheat led gains putting in risk premium on the low crop rating which triggers some short covering and corn followed.
Grain futures are seeing corrective buying, bouncing off technical support says Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures.
The lack of guidance for a new clean-fuel tax credit is causing biofuels producers to put off some purchases of soyoil for early next year.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX says grains saw technical and risk off selling from sharply lower crude oil. However, improved rains in South America were also a factor.
Cattle are trading two-sided early as Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market is digesting the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Grains are seeing pressure from a number of bearish factors.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says price performance might have been a little disappointing but that’s because of USDA’s lofty ending stocks estimates at nearly 2 billion bushels for corn and 550 million bushels for soybeans.
USDA forecasts all food costs this year will rise 2.3%.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains saw profit taking on Friday after hitting chart resistance and a pick up in farmer selling.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains ease on profit taking and farmer selling. Cattle make more new highs for the move on hedge lifting and higher cash trade which was generally up $2 yesterday then fade.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a new agriculture plan aimed at reviving the country’s food production and distribution systems to resemble those of the 1980s.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says corn was pushed Thursday by strong demand with 15.5 million bushels of flash sales and weekly exports of 142 million bushels, the highest in 3 1/2 years.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and soybeans are getting pushed by strong weekly exports and more flash sales.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says while soybean export demand is improving if South America continues to receive rain prices could be too high.
The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) is responsible for reviewing current nutrition science and providing recommendations for the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which are updated every five years.