Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking with better than expected ratings, reigniting fears of higher yields in the September WASDE. Corn saw spillover from lower soybeans and crude oil.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, thinks the biggest yield numbers have already been traded in the corn and soybean markets and represent the contract lows in August.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
The decline was partially due to lower total national supply (down 1% to 38.7 MMT).
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, expects cash cattle and futures to recover this week if the stock market can stablilize. Soybeans rebound on China business and South American weather, but corn fails.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk says grain markets scored reversals Friday on profit taking by fund traders after hitting key chart resistance. However, it was triggered by the bearish outside markets and caution ahead of the September WASDE Report.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says new crop corn and soybean charts are signaling the September WASDE might be bearish and confirm the large crop size.
Federal Reserve policymakers said they are ready to lower interest rates at the U.S. central bank’s meeting in two weeks.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says bearish outside markets spilled over to cause risk off selling in grain and livestock futures Friday, but grain markets says some profit taking and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
A recap of this week’s price action and outlook broken down into the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says grains have had a good run on fund short covering and will need some new bullish news to keep going and get above chart resistance.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and wheat saw some profit taking after a nice rally, while soybeans powered back on export business and South American weather.
The House is preparing to vote next week on legislation aimed at restricting foreign ownership of U.S. agricultural land, particularly targeting purchases by entities connected to China.
The SAF Coalition has formed, representing nearly 40 major airlines, airports, manufacturers and biofuel producers, lobbying Congress to provide a larger and longer-lasting tax incentive for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains are seeing near term support from global weather concerns and improving demand. Livestock end in the red with a poor technical close in cattle on lower cash.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are reacting to early cash which was lower but he says he is still looking for steady money. Grains take a breather, but he thinks that rally will continue with better demand and South American concerns.
Low water conditions have led to several barges running aground along a key stretch of the lower Mississippi River, the U.S. Coast Guard told Reuters.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says supply and demand factors are combining to push the market higher and he isn’t sure the rally is over yet.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grains are pricing in ideas that corn and soybean yields are not as big as feared. That’s what they found in their nationwide annual yield survey. However, South America’s crop size may also be declining. So what will that mean for the September WASDE and can grain prices continue to rally as a result?
A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia’s top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain are higher early Wednesday. The market has been pushed by fund short covering, lower yield ideas and better demand. However, upside may be limited especially as farmers sell on the rally. Livestock are mixed.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he was encouraged grains were all able to close higher and build on last week’s higher weekly closes. So was it all fund short covering?
This acquisition, announced in December 2023, gives KAES full ownership of the state-of-the-art facility, which has the capacity to produce 3.5 MMT of nitrogen fertilizers and diesel exhaust fluid annually.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says grains saw fund short covering and profit taking building on higher weekly closes. There was also some money flowing into the grains with the stock market melt down. However, buying also stemmed from weather and ideas of lower yield and crop conditions in corn and soybeans.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, shares what he’s looking for this week in the markets to prove last week’s higher closes in the grains wasn’t just a head fake or a bear trap.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says while the technical action in the grain markets was encouraging grains need to close higher again next week for confirmation. Cattle and hogs also closed higher Friday and for the week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says long term continuation charts for live cattle still look positive. Corn and soybeans could post higher weekly closes but he thinks it might be a bear trap.
Corn and soybeans rally Thursday putting in some weather premium but may have reached a value level which is uncovering strong end user demand.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybean may have dialed in the biggest yield and with hot dry weather trimming yield and demand picking up the markets could see more buying.