Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
The new CBO projections “prove what we have been saying all along: the House Republican farm bill is unpaid-for, relying on magic math and wishful thinking,” Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said.
Michigan’s ag department will provide the grant money for to up to 20 farms from its emergency response funds.
The Fed is expected to start lowering interest rates by the end of the year. Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says this may keep fund money away from the grain markets.
Row crops recovered on Tuesday, while cattle posted another lower day. Brad Kooima, Kooima Varilek says all those markets saw corrective action.
Live cattle futures fall a second day in what Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek calls routine profit taking. Row crops see a technical bounce with lower crop ratings.
The world’s renewable fuel makers will face a waste oil supply crunch, Bloomberg reports.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans try to bounce as they are technically oversold and with a 2% drop in crop ratings, wheat tries to follow but fails.
The Iowa Department of Agriculture reported another dairy herd infected with H5N1, making a total of six herds infected in the state.
Grain markets were sharply lower on Monday on fund selling and improved extended weather forecasts for the Eastern Corn Belt says Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures
Grains were sharply lower on fund selling, but row crops were also pressed by extended weather. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says technical damage has been done on grain charts. While livestock saw consolidation.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 183.6 million bu. of soybeans during May, 5.2 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate and a record for the month.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains will be watching weather and gearing up for the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports in the week ahead.
A lackluster WASDE report had the same effect on the markets this week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, doesn’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of change in acreage in USDA’s report at the end of June.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains end lower. Row crops see profit taking, with harvest pressure in wheat. Cattle made new near-term highs pushed by record cash, hogs bounce.
The U.S. is worried the port’s ability to handle megaships directly between Peru and China could shift trade dynamics, making it easier for China to extract and control South American resources.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart, says grains down early on profit taking and hedge pressure in wheat, but watching weather and demand. Cattle continue higher following cash.
The landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has changed dramatically, similar to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel in the past two decades, according to a report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
La Niña patterns tend to produce hotter conditions across the central and eastern United States.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, is still optimistic the cattle market will be able to achieve all-time highs again in both cash and futures in the next few months.
The higher day in corn after the WASDE was encouraging to Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, “I’ve kind of been telling folks no new bearish news, is actually good news,” he explains.
Grains end lower except corn after USDA makes on only slight adjustments in the June WASDE. Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says now the market will prep for the month end reports and watch weather.
For 2024, USDA raised its pork production forecast 40 million lbs. on a more rapid pace of second-quarter slaughter and higher dressed weights. USDA lowered its 2024 beef production forecast 5 million lbs.
Grains mixed after the WASDE with very few changes for corn and soybeans. Wheat did see slightly lower U.S. ending stocks and Russian, EU and Ukraine production dropped a total of 8 mmt says Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net.
Cattle rally on strong cash but face a tug of war due to bird flu news says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Hogs try to follow but struggle with sliding cash. Row crops higher, wheat lower correcting pre- report.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says traders evened positions Tuesday going into the USDA reports. However, he’s expecting very few revisions on a U.S. basis so he’s looking at global numbers.
Grains see a corrective day and WASDE report positioning with wheat sharply higher, row crops lower. Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says cattle also saw profit taking ahead of the Fed announcement.
The international monetary and reserve system is gradually moving away from dollar dominance.
The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6%, up from January’s 2.4%, driven by strong U.S. economic expansion. However, it warns that. . .
Boosted by the popularity of forage policies, crop insurance coverage exceeded 500 million acres in 2023, marking the highest level ever.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he was impressed with how corn and soybeans managed to end higher on Monday, despite the collapse in wheat.