Final 2025 export numbers are in, and while U.S. beef exports reflected the realities of tighter cattle supplies and lost access to China, the broader global demand story remains historically strong, according to Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.
Speaking during Commodity Classic, Halstrom detailed not only where exports landed in 2025, but what the numbers mean for cattle producers, grain farmers and the industry’s outlook in 2026 as the United States’ ability to supply high-quality corn-fed beef is feeding some of that growth in demand.
2025 Beef Numbers: China Drives the Decline
Looking back at 2025, Halstrom says most of the anticipated decline in beef exports materialized due to tight cattle supplies. But the magnitude of the drop largely centered on one country.
“Looking at the beef side, yeah, we’re down about 10%, 11%,” he says. “But majority of that is China.”
Halstrom says if you take out China, beef demand is steady compared to 2024, which was a historic year.
The issue with China traces back to last April, when China did not renew export registrations for approximately 400 U.S. beef establishments.
“Unfortunately, that was implemented, the ban on the establishments, or they didn’t renew the establishments last April, and that’s the primary reason we’re down,” Halstrom explains.
However, he was quick to point out that removing China from the equation changes the narrative significantly.
“So you take China out of the mix, our value is steady with a year ago, and we’re only down a couple percent on volume,” he says. “So I think that’s the real story here.”
While regaining access to China remains a priority, and could be a topic of discussion when China and the U.S. are poised to hold trade talks in April, Halstrom says the broader global marketplace is performing at exceptionally high levels.
“Obviously, it’s a real priority to try to get China back going again and it’s top of USTR’s list,” he says. “But the real story is that the rest of the world demand is record-breaking and it is really performing.”
With a potential meeting planned between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in early April, Halstrom said he is cautiously optimistic.
“Well, I’m optimistic it will be, yes,” he said when asked whether trade would be part of the discussion. “Because, in my opinion, this is a political thing.”
He adds that from an administrative standpoint, restoring plant listings could be straightforward.
“The actual relisting of 400 establishments is relatively easy, if they choose to do it, in my opinion, from what we’ve heard,” Halstrom says. “So a momentous event like Trump and Xi spending a few days together, as it is planned in early April, could potentially be a breakthrough moment — and at least the first step in a breakthrough.”
Demand is “As Good As I’ve Ever Seen It”
Even without China fully active, Halstrom repeatedly returned to one theme: demand.
“Demand is not a problem,” he said. “The under-supply of cattle is a problem, we all know that, but demand is as good as I’ve ever seen it.”
He pointed to emerging shifts in buyer behavior, particularly in Latin America.
“There’s markets like Guatemala, Central America, even Mexico, that are demanding Choice and higher-graded beef from the U.S.,” he said. “That didn’t use to five to 10 years ago.”
The scale of the shift is notable given current price levels, according to Halstrom.
“Who would have thought that I would never have thought a place like Guatemala would be demanding Prime beef from the U.S. when the cutout for Choice is $360 and higher,” Halstrom says “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”
After more than four decades in the meat export business, he described the current environment as unprecedented.
“I’ve been in this business now 43, 44th year,” he says. “We’re in an unprecedented area of demand for our product.”
The Corn-Fed Advantage
Halstrom attributed much of that sustained global interest to the unique characteristics of U.S. production.
“A lot of it is the corn-fed product that creates this marbling and this rich taste,” he says. “Nobody else in the world can copy it.”
That differentiation continues to allow U.S. beef to compete at premium price levels, even in developing markets that historically prioritized lower-cost protein options.
Corn and Soybean Growers Aren’t Just Exporting Grain
During Commodity Classic this week, Halstrom emphasized the measurable return meat exports generate for crop producers.
“We actually just finished the computations for 2025,” he says. “Every bushel of corn, $0.58 per bushel of that value is attributable to exports of U.S. pork and beef.”
The soybean impact was even more striking.
“On the soybean side, it was a little over $1 a bushel, just attributable to pork exports,” Halstrom says.
Halstrom says U.S. grain producers aren’t just exporting grain. They’re also exporting meat.
The 2026 Wild Card
Asked what single factor he is watching most closely in 2026, Halstrom again circled back to demand.
“Demand,” he says. “Demand is as good as I’ve ever seen.”
With historically tight cattle supplies likely to persist, maintaining that appetite at elevated price levels will be critical.
“It’s really hard to explain unless you’ve seen it,” Halstrom said of the current export climate. “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”
If demand continues at today’s pace, and if China reenters the market, the ripple effects could extend well beyond the beef complex, reinforcing value throughout the feed and grain sectors once again.
