Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Grain markets were sharply lower on Monday on fund selling and improved extended weather forecasts for the Eastern Corn Belt says Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures
Grains were sharply lower on fund selling, but row crops were also pressed by extended weather. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says technical damage has been done on grain charts. While livestock saw consolidation.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 183.6 million bu. of soybeans during May, 5.2 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate and a record for the month.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains will be watching weather and gearing up for the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports in the week ahead.
A lackluster WASDE report had the same effect on the markets this week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, doesn’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of change in acreage in USDA’s report at the end of June.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains end lower. Row crops see profit taking, with harvest pressure in wheat. Cattle made new near-term highs pushed by record cash, hogs bounce.
The U.S. is worried the port’s ability to handle megaships directly between Peru and China could shift trade dynamics, making it easier for China to extract and control South American resources.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart, says grains down early on profit taking and hedge pressure in wheat, but watching weather and demand. Cattle continue higher following cash.
The landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has changed dramatically, similar to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel in the past two decades, according to a report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
La Niña patterns tend to produce hotter conditions across the central and eastern United States.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, is still optimistic the cattle market will be able to achieve all-time highs again in both cash and futures in the next few months.
The higher day in corn after the WASDE was encouraging to Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, “I’ve kind of been telling folks no new bearish news, is actually good news,” he explains.
Grains end lower except corn after USDA makes on only slight adjustments in the June WASDE. Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says now the market will prep for the month end reports and watch weather.
For 2024, USDA raised its pork production forecast 40 million lbs. on a more rapid pace of second-quarter slaughter and higher dressed weights. USDA lowered its 2024 beef production forecast 5 million lbs.
Grains mixed after the WASDE with very few changes for corn and soybeans. Wheat did see slightly lower U.S. ending stocks and Russian, EU and Ukraine production dropped a total of 8 mmt says Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net.
Cattle rally on strong cash but face a tug of war due to bird flu news says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. Hogs try to follow but struggle with sliding cash. Row crops higher, wheat lower correcting pre- report.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says traders evened positions Tuesday going into the USDA reports. However, he’s expecting very few revisions on a U.S. basis so he’s looking at global numbers.
Grains see a corrective day and WASDE report positioning with wheat sharply higher, row crops lower. Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says cattle also saw profit taking ahead of the Fed announcement.
The international monetary and reserve system is gradually moving away from dollar dominance.
The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6%, up from January’s 2.4%, driven by strong U.S. economic expansion. However, it warns that. . .
Boosted by the popularity of forage policies, crop insurance coverage exceeded 500 million acres in 2023, marking the highest level ever.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he was impressed with how corn and soybeans managed to end higher on Monday, despite the collapse in wheat.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and beans end higher, which was impressive considering the collapse of the wheat market which has been down nine days. Cattle rally, while hogs fail.
Cattle futures rally as Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says Northern cash trade topped at $193 live late Friday. Hogs consolidate. Row crops bounce, despite the lower wheat market.
More fund selling Friday in the grains shows the funds are back selling on any rally and reestablishing their short position says Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says speculators look like they are re-establishing their short positions at least in the corn and soybean markets. “They are selling on any rally,” he says.
On Jan. 1, 2025, the 40B and 40A credits will expire, and the 45Z program will begin, running through 2027. The new credit will be based on emissions rates.
“It’s like farmers threw in the towel after getting sick of waiting for better prices or realized they’re going to need bin space,” says Jerry Gulke. He shares four points that might mean lower prices aren’t over yet.
Friday’s technically bearish weekly low closes in winter wheat futures suggest follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week. However, the winter wheat futures markets are also short-term oversold...
Grains back lower as wheat drags down corn and soybeans and Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are back in sell mode. Cattle are trying to bounce awaiting cash news while hogs are mostly lower again.