Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Garrett Toay, AgTrader Talk, says the seasonal highs for corn usually come in the third week of June. However, with funds nearly flat the big determinant of future direction will be weather and the June Acreage Report.
Gulke says, all of the winter predictions for the grain and oilseed market haven’t come true. “So suddenly we’ve kind of turned upside down to where conventional wisdom was almost 98% wrong.,” he says.
USDA maintained its outlook for all food prices to rise 2.2% this year, with food at home (grocery) costs expected to be up 1.2%.
Grains end mostly higher Friday with pre-holiday trade but also holding weather premium. Cattle traded mostly lower ahead of the COF Report despite some record cash in the North. Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, has more.
A recap of this week’s price action and key market drivers in the next 5, 30 and 90 days.
Cattle futures fade the record high cash trade on caution ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report. Hogs still searching for a low. Grains chop pre-holiday eyeing weather. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has more.
USDA is launching a new initiative to compensate dairy farmers for milk losses caused by H5N1,marking potentially the largest economic aid for the dairy industry to date.
Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says, “On the weather side we are looking for a pretty wet weekend and brings up question about whether farmers will switch corn acres to beans or take prevent plant.”
Corn and wheat end higher still trading weather concerns in the U.S. and globally, but corn exports were also strong. Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says, both markets are up challenging chart resistance.
The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its 2024 global corn production forecast 6 MMT from last month.
Grains continue to rally on weather concerns, but what is going on with cash basis levels and when should farmers sell? Nick Tsiolis, Farmers Keeper, shares insight.
Soybeans rally on talk of China export sales, corn follows. Wheat makes near term highs then farmer selling hits. Cattle also make for the move highs with higher cash news. Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, has more.
Grains end mixed on Wednesday. Mark Schults, Northstar Commodity says soybeans led the rally and pulled corn along, while wheat hit near term highs and then faded on farmer selling.
Drought in two key Brazilian corn-growing states is reducing the potential size of the country’s safrinha corn crop, according to Agroconsult, as the consultancy kicks off a countrywide field tour.
Wheat makes near term highs before farmer selling hits, corn & soybeans try to hold gains on planting delays, talk of China soybean buys. Cattle make near term highs. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, has more.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing says wheat had a chart breakout Tuesday and follow through buying will be important Wednesday. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans see Turnaround Tuesday on planting progress.
A quick transition from El Niño to La Niña and a dominating lunar cycle has six analog years, all of which suggest below-normal rainfall and warmer temps during summer, according to World Weather Inc.
Wheat made new highs for the move on Tuesday. John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says Wednesday’s close will be important to see if there is follow through buying to keep the rally going. Corn and beans consolidated.
Ship diversions from the Red Sea due to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have caused container freight rates to increase by about 30% in recent weeks.
Winter wheat continues to rally on global production concerns and fund buying. Corn and beans are seeing corrective and farmers selling on planting progress. Cattle strong. DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, has details.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says the wheat market is taking its cue from the Paris wheat futures which is pricing in production concerns in the Black Sea and Europe.
Wheat resumes its weather rally on global production concerns, pulling up corn and soybeans. Cattle take a breather despite higher cash. Hogs struggle on China news. Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, has more.
For the first time in two years a uniform set of data reports is suggesting that restrictive monetary policy may be starting to bite, says Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics.
President Joe Biden’s decision to raise tariffs on selected goods from China, impacting roughly $18 billion worth of imports, is expected to stir conflict within supply chains over who will bear the cost.
Cattle futures pulled up by last week’s strong cash, cutouts. Hogs try to bounce. Grains add weather premium but can markets get above last week’s chart resistance? Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, has insight.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and wheat saw technical selling and profit taking for the last four sessions after running into chart resistance. It could be seasonal top without fresh weather concerns.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and wheat futures tried to rally several sessions and ended lower after running into chart resistance. That could be a seasonal top unless there is a bigger weather story.
A Wood Mackenzie report highlights that a victory for Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 presidential election could jeopardize $1 trillion in energy investments, particularly those supporting low-carbon energy sources.
Six major commodity groups, including the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), sent a letter to ITC in April encouraging it to vote against advancing a petition.
Cattle futures make near term highs pushed by higher cash and cutouts. Hogs fail with the futures premium to the LHI. Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek has details. Corn needs to hold key support, soybeans run.