Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says soybeans saw continued resilience due to strong demand including expectations of renewable biofuel increases.
Soybeans started off slightly lower on corrective selling but quickly found buying interest says Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says many are skeptical, based on past experience, that China will honor the deal to buy the additional soybeans for this marketing year.
Soybeans were lower by 3 to 4 cents on Friday on profit taking heading into the holiday according to Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions but ended higher for the week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have been chopping back and forth this week and need to take out last week’s highs on the charts to break out and to new highs.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says news of a possible China trade truce extension fueled hopes for additional purchases of American agricultural products, including soybeans.
Corn sales and export inspections through the end of January were on pace to get to USDA’s estimate but not strong enough to suggest exports of more than 3.2 billion. But what if demand in importing countries suddenly expands?
Soybeans gapped higher on the open on Wednesday night on news that China and the U.S. are going to extend the trade truce another year and may cut tariffs says Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says wheat led the grain markets on short covering Wednesday and pulled corn and soybeans off early lows.
Ag Resource Company’s Dan Basse breaks down the February WASDE report and looming acreage shifts.
Risk off in the outside markets also played a role in the selling pressure according to Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer. However, he doesn’t think all the China demand is priced into the soybean market.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher early Monday extending gains after Friday’s higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says he thinks the price action on Friday is sending a strong signal about the soybean market direction.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says after crashing Thursday on fears of a beef plant strike, cattle are recovering on higher cash.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says the soybean market is still trying to price in the possibility of China buying another 300 million bu. of soybeans this marketing year.
Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, says fed cattle cash prices may exceed last year’s but the average will be similar to 2025.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says, “This is, you know, basically 8 million metric ton or roughly 294 million bushels of added soybean demand that we were not expecting.”
Traders want proof from China of the potential soybean buys according to Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Tyler Schau of AgMarket says cattle futures make new highs for the move on higher cash and the report tailwind. Soybeans followed soybean oil which rallied as Treasury released 45Z guidance and that pulled up corn.
Adjusting for inflation, the average size of farm operating loans during 2025 was 30% larger than the prior year.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says it was a money flow day as grains were influenced by the selloff in crude oil and the precious metal markets, plus the higher dollar.
With the lack of rebuilding the strong cattle market could be extended another year.
Ag market activity Friday and much of the week was dominated by money flow and spillover from outside markets like the metals, the energies, and the dollar. That’s according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle markets have gotten caught up in the outside market money flow but are also seeing some caution ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report to be released Friday.
While producers were aggressive sellers of soybeans last fall, they remained reluctant to move corn or wheat.
Alan Brugler, with A&N Economics Inc., says, “What we’re seeing right now is, I think, intentional — that is, to get a little weaker dollar and, of course, that does help a commodities in general.”
Grain markets were higher overnight and on the opening Thursday making multi-week highs and new highs for the move before failing. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says the asset reallocation in the outside markets spilled over into the ag markets.
Alan Brugler with A&E Economics, Inc. says funds buying in the grains Wednesday and early Thursday was tied to money flow. The key to keeping it going is to get through chart resistance.
Grains markets ended higher across the complex, driven mostly by money flow according to Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans were also getting a push from South American weather, with wheat adding risk premium on U.S. weather concerns.