Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.
As he awaits official per-acre payment rates from USDA, Jerry Gulke is leaning toward soybeans versus corn, saying the estimated $46-per-acre corn payment is woefully inadequate and “like a bridge to nowhere.”
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the slide in soybeans has been a result of prices getting too high in anticipation of the China trade deal. Now prices are lower than before the purchases were announced. He’s hopeful a low is close.
It’s worth paying attention to the Bank of Japan and the market’s reaction to its latest policy moves.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures are higher despite some lower Northern cash trade. However, this week the trend has been sideways with the market unable to take out chart resistance.
Alongside strong growth in farm loans, liquidity at commercial agricultural banks tightened and earnings increased during the third quarter.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says rumors of China purchases circulate nearly every time the corn market rallies.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says corn is seeing some short covering but demand has also been a factor with ethanol production at a record level this week and exports continuing to run at a record pace.
Uncertainty in Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have also confirmed the head and shoulders top and are working lower completing the shoulder.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans have served as an anchor for the grain markets on a host of bearish news items and fund liquidation.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says the soybeans and wheat made new lows for the move on Monday. Grains have been suffering from a lack of bullish news and for soybeans China fatigue is also a factor.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are overbought after last week’s higher weekly closes. So this is a healthy correction.
The U.S. may ease more restrictions as its relations with Belarus normalize.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the bearish lower weekly closes for a second week confirms the top is in the soybean market.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says part of the pressure in soybeans was technical selling but the market is also starting to trade the big crop potential in South America.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are finding support from sharply higher fed cash trade. So, if that can continue he is mildly optimistic about futures continuing to push higher.
It could limit precipitation over South America’s growing season.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the $10,80 level has been strong support in soybeans and held with the help of more daily export sales.
John Zanker with Farmers Keeper Financial says soybeans could not hold early gains despite more export business and may be eyeing the gap area from Oct. 24.
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee delivered a 0.25% interest rate cut.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says early pressure in soybeans came from follow through selling and more confusion on China’s purchase commitments. However, soybeans bounced off of strong technical support at the days lows.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says the soybean market is reading the USTR comments as there is no real deal and actually has been trading that way for a while now.
The oil market faces the prospect of a “super glut” next year.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the 125 million bu. cut to U.S. corn ending stocks was bullish as well as global corn carryout.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says he was a bit surprised by how aggressive USDA was in raising corn exports to 3.2 billion bu. which is a record.
President Trump on Monday signaled he could impose new tariffs on agricultural products
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the soybean market continues to be plagued by uncertainty over China’s soybean purchase commitments and a close below $11 projects lower prices.
Brad Kooima says both live and feeder cattle futures markets struggled Monday as the huge recovery off the lows put contracts up into 50% retracement levels.