Latest News From Markets

An $80.7 billion deficit in December drove the U.S. 2021 calendar year trade red ink to a record $859.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.

As Brazilian farmers are planting their safrinha corn crop, they face atrazine shipping delays and unexpected canceled deliveries. . .

Wheat futures rose after Stats Canada reported a big drop in the country’s inventories at the end of 2021, fueling concern over tight supplies of milling-quality wheat.

Attaché cuts Brazil corn crop, exports

Business owners concerned over inflation, CCC funds proposed for $1 billion Climate-Smart Commodities program and Biden threatens to cut European pipeline...

U.S. officials reiterated their stance that China has resisted urgings to live up to terms of the Phase 1 trade deal in remarks to Politico.

Soybean futures surged on continued support from the two factors that have fueled recent strong gains – South American weather/crop concerns and strong fund buying.

European leaders build relations with Russia, U.S.

China and Russia outlined a vision of international relations anchored in their potential to reinforce each other in disputes with the U.S. and its allies. . .

All regions of Russia can ship wheat and barley to China. China previously restricted shipments from some regions of Russia due to phytosanitary concerns.

In the next 15 days, rainfall amounts will either make or break Argentina’s soybean crop, according to a weather report from the Rosario Grain Exchange.

SRW wheat futures fell for the first week in the past 3 and charts strongly suggest prices may have established a near-term peak, but the market has demonstrated a capacity to generate renewed buying interest. . .

“Exciting times I think are not behind us yet,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “Price volatility is going to be extreme from one week to another.”

Ukraine/Russia crisis: Diplomatic meetings scheduled for next week

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its Argentine soybean crop estimate by 2 MMT. . .

The initial hearing in the process to write a new farm bill took place Wednesday, with the House Agriculture Conservation and Forestry Subcommittee examining current conservation programs.

Corn futures settled near a two-week low on profit-taking and technical selling in the wake of the early-week rally to nine-month highs.

Growing certainty in Washington that Russia will order some kind of military strike

The Bank of England raises rates again, NCBA opposes cash cattle trade mandates, and Europe seeks alternatives to Russian natgas...

Last year, prices rallied from January to May, and a repeat certainly is in the cards. 

Overall, global pork imports and exports are predicted to decrease from 2021 levels, according to the latest outlook from Rabobank.

“You know, it is really clear that the Chinese haven’t met their commitment in Phase 1,” Bianchi said.

Belarus is working with other countries to sell its potash internationally.

Ukraine/Russia diplomatic solution reduced

Eurozone inflation continues to climb, the DOC announces countervailing duty rates on UAN and Senator Manchin calls BBB, "dead."

Farmer sentiment dropped six points as the January Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined to its second-lowest reading since July 2020.

Corn-for-ethanol use increased to 485.8 million bu. in December, according to USDA. . .

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 4 MMT to 130 MMT.

Consultant cuts South America soybean production estimate by 5 MMT.

Russia continues to deny invasion plans, soybean crush expected to hit record high and hog slaughter opens the week on a high note...

Cotton futures extended last week’s late upturn to reach the highest levels in 10 1/2-years behind strength in crude oil and U.S. stocks, and optimism over demand.

Officials meet this week on Russia/Ukraine

USDA’s attaché in Argentina lowered its estimate for the country’s corn production and exports by 3 MMT each . . .

USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle inventory report for the U.S. after the close Monday, which may keep many traders sidelined. The report probably will reflect ongoing herd liquidation across the U.S. . .

Soybean price action recaps and 5-30-90 day outlooks.

Dry weather in South America, a brewing U.S. acreage battle and global unrest all took grain prices higher for the week. 

Russia continues military preparations, de-escalation still possible

A group of Republican senators wrote to EPA Administrator Michael Regan to express concerns over the levels proposed for 2022 by the agency for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the proposed rejection. . .

Strength in the dollar triggers pressure in livestock markets, Biden warns Ukrainian counterpart and crop sales by U.S., Brazilian and Argy farmers slow...

The macro elements affecting ag prices are as dynamic as I have ever seen them.

The European Commission increased its forecast for soft wheat, corn and . . .

Corn futures fell under corrective selling following yesterday’s close near a nine-month high, along with pressure from the U.S. dollar’s rally to 19-month highs, which also helped send wheat futures down sharply.

Russia/Ukraine diplomatic talks to continue

We asked eight analysts to provide their best estimates on price direction and market strategies you can put to use in 2022.  

USDA will hold a general signup for the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) Jan. 31-March 31 and a Grassland CRP signup April 4-May 13.

Ukraine says Russia lacks sufficient troop support for full scale invasion, CRP signup begins this month and the Senate will move quickly to fill Supreme Court vacancy...

Farmers need to learn to balance the risks of their grain marketing decisions. For example, if you sell grain early, replace those cash sales with call options.

The U.S. registered a record trade deficit in goods of $101.0 billion in December, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Based on a Reuters story, IHS Markit expects U.S. farmers to plant less corn, soybean, spring wheat and cotton acres compared to its December forecasts.

Price action: Soybean futures led the soy complex higher, with nearby March bean futures surging 32 3/4 cents to $14.40, the highest in the contract’s lifetime.