You know the saying: The only two certainties in life are death and taxes.
This phrase has an interesting origin, dating back to a 1789 letter Ben Franklin wrote to French scientist Jean-Baptiste Leroy. Franklin’s knowledge and writing skills have stood the test of time.
But I think Franklin left something out. Death and taxes are not the only two constants. They have a third cousin — change.
More than two centuries after Franklin’s letter to Leroy, some guy who would come to be known as Machinery Pete started his journey of compiling auction prices on farm and construction equipment sold in North America. It was November 1989. What an amazing 32-year ride it’s been.
As I look to the future of the farm equipment market, I find myself looking back to draw on lessons I’ve learned in the past decades. Change has always been the fulcrum upon which truths become evident. So, I present my thoughts on the future.
1.No one can predict the future.
How’s that for a first proclamation? We can make educated guesses, but who could have known commodity prices would surge the way they did in the fall of 2020, during a 100-year pandemic? Things are the way they are, until they aren’t.
My advice is to train yourself to not take the “grumpy old man approach” to change. Life is too short for that mindset. Change brings opportunity, which is often good.
2. The pace of change is increasing – rapidly.
When I started compiling auction sale data in 1989, there was no internet. I mailed out four books a year. You had to wait three months to get the latest auction prices. Imagine that now. When it comes to farm equipment, the amazing progression of precision ag technology will only move faster. Bring it.
3. The used equipment market has evolved.
Change sneaks up on you. Long-held unchallenged beliefs can go ... poof.
Farm equipment dealers will always have way too much late-model equipment stuck on their lots. That was the case until several factors changed that trend.
Dealer consolidation has progressed in an aggressive fashion. Fewer, larger and more well-capitalized dealerships take a different approach to used equipment inventory management. “Hold and hope” was a necessary faith-based approach of the former myriad of smaller dealerships. Frankly, they couldn’t afford to move the entirety of their large excess of late-model used inventory. They would have been out of business.
Today, dealer used inventory levels are the tightest I’ve ever seen. Late in 2021, dealers were piling into the auction market as buyers They needed more used inventory.
4. Trusted data is becoming more important.
So how can you navigate our ever-changing world? Lean on the best, most trustworthy data and information you can find. Tune out the white noise and tune in to trusted data. Lasting truths are found there, which you can apply and help your farm thrive.
The lasting truth I offer from my life of tracking sale data: It pays, literally, to take great care of your farm equipment. That won’t change.
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