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Market Commentary for 10/1/21
USDA Stocks Report Highlights
Beans
Thursday’s report was pretty bearish beans due to substantially more supply still remaining in storage than the trade expected. Even so, the market only decreased 40 cents after two days of trading, which is encouraging.
Corn
Estimates were not bullish, but after this summer’s massive market inverses, the final numbers were not out of line either. Even after the bean news, corn managed to close on Friday no lower than where it was the day before the report was published.
Wheat
The report showed fewer wheat bushels than expected, and after two days of trading, prices increased more than 50 cents. This may suggest wheat replaced more corn in rations last spring than originally thought. And this makes sense, considering wheat prices were very close to corn values in April and May. However, now that the wheat/corn price spread is much wider, it is unlikely that very much wheat will be used for feed this upcoming marketing year.
If the wheat market has really turned a corner, it may be the catalyst needed to pull corn prices higher. And if corn is pulled along with wheat, there is a chance beans could reluctantly tag along too.
Looking Forward
The focus will now be on the national yield estimates published in the October report. Early information from fields south of I-80 across the belt suggests both corn and bean yields need to be increased. Drought areas north of I-80 and west of I-35 may not be as bad as everyone thought, and if these yield report patterns continue to hold true, it could keep a lid on prices through October.
Want to read more by Jon Scheve? Check out recent articles:
Did Beans Bounce Off a Seasonal Low?
Asking the Right Questions When Discussing Early Yield Results
Did The Corn Market Just Establish $5 As This Season’s Price Floor?
Will Corn Pull Back To $5? Are Beans Finished Going Down?
No, Oats Do NOT Know & Lumber Prices Have No Bearing On Grain Values
Seasonal Pull Back In Prices as Harvest Approaches, But Will It Last?
Corn And Bean Prices Can Potentially Rally Going Forward
The Spread Between Posted Bids And Prices End Users are Willing To Pay Could Be More Than 60 Cents
How I Save Time And Money By Hiring Commercial Trucks To Haul Grain Off My Farm
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Jon Scheve
Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
jon@superiorfeed.com
