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Weekly Grain Market Recap
SOYBEANS
Soybeans experienced significant volatility this week, driven primarily by renewed Chinese buying activity. Prices rallied early in the week on growing optimism around Chinese purchases following the trade war truce, with futures climbing nearly 3% on Monday to a 17-month high. The optimism was backed by concrete action as China’s state-owned COFCO purchased at least 840,000 metric tons for December and January shipment—China’s largest U.S. soybean purchase since January.
The USDA confirmed multiple flash sales throughout the week totaling over 1.5 million metric tons to China for 2025/26 delivery. However, markets gave back gains mid-week as “Buy the rumor, sell the news” took hold and as traders viewed prices as “overbought”. Despite the renewed optimism some doubt remains as China is far from the White House’s stated target of 12 million tons for the year. For the week January futures were 1/2 of a cent higher.
On the supply side, U.S. soybean crush hit a record 227.6 million bushels in October, beating all trade estimates and demonstrating robust domestic demand from expanding biofuel processing capacity. Weekly export inspections totaled 1.18 million metric tons, running above the previous week but well behind last year’s pace, with marketing year-to-date exports at 10.1 million tons versus 17.6 million last year.
Internationally, Brazil’s 2025/26 planting reached 71% complete, lagging last year’s 80% pace due to irregular rainfall. Safras & Mercado lowered its Brazilian crop forecast to 178.8 million tons from 180.9 million tons, though this still represents a 4% increase from the previous season. Argentina faces more serious challenges, with severe flooding in Buenos Aires province leaving 1.5 million hectares at high risk of remaining unproductive. Planting sits at just 24.6% complete—12.9% behind the five-year average—and approximately 70% of local farmland is either underwater or suffering from excess moisture……
Read the entire write up covering Corn, Wheat, Soybeans and Cattle here: A WILD Week Leaves Grain Prices Back at Square One - Blue Line Futures
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