Corn
Grain markets are seeing value and technical buying but Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says the rebound in soybeans is supported by a recovery in the Brazilian Real.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says soybeans see a dead cat bounce off contract lows Thursday. Meanwhile, cattle futures end lower despite good early cash news. So is this topping action?
The same week Congress released the proposed CR that included $31 billion in aid for producers, a Farm Journal poll asked farmers for their thoughts on whether Congress should pass economic aid.
The stopgap deal to avoid a government shutdown includes $10 billion in direct payments for farmers, $21 bllion in ag disaster aid, a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and year-round E15.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says after the 200 million bushel cut to corn ending stocks in the December WASDE he wonders if USDA is preparing the marketplace for more of the same in the final January report?
Alan Brugler of A&N Economics, LLC says corn started higher still digesting the bullish cut to ending stocks in the December WASDE but ran into chart resistance.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains are extending gains from Tuesday on technical and fund buying as the markets. The markets are still digesting the bullish USDA report data for corn and even wheat.
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Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says grains close higher after the WASDE and USDA’s surprise cut in corn ending stocks by 200 million bushels.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the agency shocked the market in the December WASDE by lowering ending stocks on corn 200 million bu. to 1.738 billion bu., with an increase in demand.
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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for Stone X, says corn and wheat ended higher on value buying after wheat hit contract lows last week. Soybeans continue to be under pressure with favorable weather in Brazil and basis levels below the U.S.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are working in last week’s higher fed cash cattle trade. Grains are also mostly higher adding geopolitical risk premium and ahead of the WASDE.
The first full week of trading in December can be enlightening and Gulke Group president Jerry Gulke says this year is no exception, especially after the 2024 election. However, he thinks the bulk of the bearish news may be priced into the corn market.
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Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says March corn sees a chart breakout Friday above $4.35 and posts a higher weekly close, pricing in strong demand and lower expected ending stocks in Tuesday’s WASDE.
While it’s unclear how Congress will push through the Farm Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act, it’s likely going to be via the Continuing Resolution. Depending on how payments are calculated, farmers could receive $101 per acre for corn, $53 for soybeans and $73 for wheat.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn failed mid-session with conflicting information about guidance being delayed for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits, but it also hit chart resistance.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle recover Tuesday after a KS plant closure headline hurt the market. Grains see a technical bounce with a lower dollar.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.
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Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.
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Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.
December might provide an opportunity. Another consideration is moving to no-till. Ferrie also addresses recouping dollars on ground that is going into solar projects.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says soybeans built on Friday’s bullish reversal with talk China is looking for more U.S. soybeans. Cattle had a volatile session with a bearish Cattle on Feed Report and sorting through import restrictions on Mexican cattle due to New World Screwworm.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures shook off the bearish Cattle on Feed Report numbers with an announcement of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. Soybeans built on the key reversal Friday on talk of China buying U.S. soybeans.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says farmers need to use the strong basis levels, especially on corn, to make some cash sales. However, there are options they can use to take advantage of a rally later on.